SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Endgame: Gulf States and Iran.. Strategic Repositioning Dismantles American Hegemony and Curbs Israeli Ambitions

https://x.com/Mo_elmalik/status/2062229739985572181

Makkawi Elmalik | مكّاوي الملك

Translated from Arabic

Urgent | Endgame: Gulf States and Iran.. Strategic Repositioning Dismantles American Hegemony and Curbs Israeli Ambitions

 Makkawi Elmalik

 The Deeper Scene: What’s happening in the Gulf is no longer just military escalation or fleeting diplomatic tension… but a comprehensive reshaping of the regional power balance
The contradictory statements in Washington.. and the direct threats toward the Sultanate of Oman, do not reflect strength so much as they reveal a genuine strategic dilemma within the American decision-making center

The United States today faces a complex equation: the cost of confrontation is high internally and externally… and the ability to impose control over vital passages, chief among them the Strait of Hormuz, is no longer what it once was
This retreat has pushed regional capitals to recalculate away from the traditional security umbrella

 The Real Shift: From Influence to Repositioning
• Oman is no longer just a mediator… but an active player opening deep channels with Tehran and participating in crafting new arrangements for the Strait  
• The discussion around managing Hormuz and imposing service fees reflects an attempt to build an economic reality outside the American framework  
• Tehran is moving quietly to build a regional network of influence based on balance, not direct confrontation  

 Erosion of the Deterrence System: Recent field developments, from repeated targeting of sensitive facilities and bases, to difficulties in protecting strategic assets, indicate that the rules of engagement have changed
The equation is no longer based on absolute superiority… but on a calculated balance managed with confidence by rising regional parties

 Washington’s Confusion:
• Contradictions in statements and decisions made as reactions rather than initiatives  
• Escalating internal pressures: political divisions, economic challenges, and legal crises narrowing the margin for maneuver  
• Increasing difficulty in controlling allies or imposing a unified rhythm in the region  

 Reshaping Alliances: Some Gulf capitals have begun leaning toward de-escalation and securing their interests through direct understandings, rather than full reliance on Washington.  
This shift is not announced explicitly… but it is being built gradually on the ground.

 The Bottom Line: The region is not experiencing a round of negotiations… but a major moment of repositioning.. Traditional hegemony is eroding gradually… against the rise of a more balanced regional equation

What’s happening is not a declared alliance… but a redistribution of roles under pressure.  And the result: a decline in the ability to impose dictates… and the rise of new balances that curb expansionist ambitions and redraw the rules of the game

And those who understand what’s happening now… realize that the next phase is not made with fanfare… but drawn quietly…  but when it is complete… it will be decisive