SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: the US is comfortable with either a possible deal or a low-level exchange of fire, but not a return to full-scale war, Tehran is comfortable with a possible deal or a full-scale war

https://x.com/tparsi/status/2062237351208784213

Over the past eight or so days, the US has targeted Iranian vessels as well as targets on the Iranian mainland. This included non-Iranian oil vessels. In essence, this was the US seeking to escalate the blockade of the blockade.

At first, Iran's response was proportional. The US could tolerate that response. 

In fact, it was beneficial to the US to continue the exchange of blows but keep them relatively limited, as it would slowly but surely erode Iran's deterrence without imposing intolerable costs on the US.

But yesterday, Iran moved to change that equation.

After the US struck a Botswana-flagged tanker as part of Trump's blockade, the Iranians counter-escalated disproportionally.

Tehran struck Kuwait International Airport as well as a US base in Kuwait, Ali Al-Salem.

It struck the 5th Fleet facilities in Bahrain. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck Jordan. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck northern Iraq. (Full extent of damage unknown.) 

It struck the UAE. (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It struck the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.  (Full extent of damage unknown.)

It was a demonstration - and reminder - that Tehran retains escalation dominance. 

Whereas the US is comfortable with either a possible deal or a low-level exchange of fire, but not a return to full-scale war, Tehran is comfortable with a possible deal or a full-scale war, but not with a low-level exchange of fire that erodes Iran's deterrence and allows for Trump's "blockade of the blockade" to become effective.

The area where both can actually be comfortable is some sort of a deal. Reaching it, however, is a different story.