The Pentagon’s own wargames show China can sink the USS Gerald R. Ford. And China just handed Iran the tools to prove it.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2027212944694723054
The Pentagon’s own wargames show China can sink the USS Gerald R. Ford. And China just handed Iran the tools to prove it.
The leaked 2025 Overmatch Brief, the most classified US naval simulation conducted last year, concluded that in a Taiwan conflict, Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles overwhelm carrier strike group defenses and send the Ford to the bottom. The $13.3 billion crown jewel of American naval power, destroyed in a simulation by the same country that is now selling CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran and delivering electronic warfare systems capable of jamming F-35s operating from carrier decks.
The Ford departed Souda Bay, Greece yesterday. She is heading directly toward the theater where those weapons are being transferred.
China is running the most elegant strategic operation of the 21st century and doing it in plain sight. Step one: prove in your own wargames that you can kill the carrier. Step two: sell the missile technology to the country the carrier is being sent against. Step three: deliver electronic warfare packages that degrade the carrier’s air wing. Step four: photograph every asset in the strike architecture and publish it so the target knows exactly what is coming and from where. Step five: sit back and watch whether America sails its most valuable warship into the kill zone anyway.
If the Ford survives, China learns how American carrier defenses actually perform against the weapon systems China designed. If the Ford is hit, China has achieved the single most consequential military intelligence victory since Enigma: real-world combat data on how to sink an American supercarrier without firing a shot themselves.
Iran is not the opponent. Iran is the laboratory.
MizarVision has photographed the F-22s at Ovda, the empty berths at Bahrain, the tankers at Diego Garcia, and now the Ford’s departure from Greece. Beijing has constructed a real-time intelligence mosaic of the entire American order of battle and distributed it freely. Every satellite pass is a page in the targeting manual China is writing through Iranian hands.
Pentagon insiders told Politico they have 7 to 10 days of munitions. Trump decides tomorrow at 3 PM. Task Force Scorpion’s kamikaze drones stand ready to extend the campaign with $35,000 Shahed clones when the Tomahawks run dry. Geneva produced “progress” without agreement. The demands remain unbridgeable. And the Ford sails toward missiles that were designed in Chinese laboratories, tested in Chinese simulations, and sold to the country America says it will strike by March.
China did not pick a side. China built the chessboard, armed both players, and positioned itself to learn from whoever loses.
The Ford is not sailing toward Iran. The Ford is sailing into a Chinese experiment. And the results will determine who controls the Pacific for the next fifty years.
posted by Satish Sharma at
08:44
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