5% is not a policy choice. It is the statutory ceiling. Section 122 caps the surcharge at 15% ad valorem. He did not raise the tariff to 15%. He maxed out the only tool he has left.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2025391958827696341
He just told you everything you need to know in one sentence and I am not sure he realizes it.
“Fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.”
Legally tested. This statute has never been invoked in 51 years. It has never been litigated. It has never survived a single judicial challenge. There is zero case law. Not one ruling. Not one circuit opinion. Not one district court order. The words “legally tested” are doing work that no courtroom has ever done.
Now the math. 15% is not a policy choice. It is the statutory ceiling. Section 122 caps the surcharge at 15% ad valorem. He did not raise the tariff to 15%. He maxed out the only tool he has left. There is no 20%. There is no 25%. There is no escalation. The leverage is gone because the ceiling is the floor and the floor expires in 150 days.
And here is what makes it worse. Indonesia signed its deal at 19%. India negotiated 18%. Both rates are now impossible to honor because the statute physically cannot go that high. He just told every country in the world that the enforcement mechanism behind their bilateral agreement is capped below the rate they agreed to.
“During the next short number of months, the Trump Administration will determine and issue the new and legally permissible Tariffs.”
Read that again. He is openly admitting Section 122 is a stopgap. He is telling you the replacement for the replacement has not been determined yet. The 150-day clock is running and the next instrument does not exist.
The IEEPA tariffs had no cap, no expiration, and country-specific rates. The replacement has a hard cap he just hit, a hard expiration in July, and cannot discriminate by country.
He went from unlimited to maximum in 24 hours and called it a victory.
The clocks do not read Truth Social.
posted by Satish Sharma at
08:54
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