all the lights are blinking scarlet red.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2009075658501361920
I typically don't like to be alarmist but any student of history would tell you: all the lights are blinking scarlet red.
I mean:
- Massive military expansion: check (see below)
- Annexation threats: check
- Demonstrated willingness to use force unilaterally: check
- New imperial doctrine proclaimed: check
- Withdrawal from international organizations and international treaties: check
At this stage we're not even watching warning signs anymore. We're watching the thing itself, in motion.
The only way the world stops this train is to put differences aside and form a balancing coalition. Otherwise the dominos will keep falling one after the other.
Hope of self-restraint of a rogue great power isn't historically a very successful strategy. Self-restraint requires either institutions (now being exited) or norms (now being shredded). The only thing that can bring it back is fear of consequences.
posted by Satish Sharma at
07:51
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