SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: It would be a huge miscalculation to assume that Iran will just stand idle and watch the United States and Israel target its infrastructure and attempt to topple its political establishment.

https://x.com/RezaNasri1/status/2113000113782112303

It would be a huge miscalculation to assume that Iran will just stand idle and watch the United States and Israel target its infrastructure and attempt to topple its political establishment. Both Washington and Tel Aviv are driven by electoral and political motives, not genuine strategic calculation: Israelis vote in six days, Americans in thirteen.

Iran will deploy all its means to make any attack prohibitively costly. A third wave of war would not stay contained. Power grids, desalination plants, refineries and ports across the region would burn. Tens of millions would be left without water or electricity, and a massive wave of refugees would move from Arab countries towards Europe. Hormuz would close completely, oil would spike, and the global economy would tip into recession. Israel's economy, already bled by mobilisation and missile fire, would not survive a prolonged war of attrition. And Trump would be trapped in a crisis that consumes the rest of his presidency and leaves a wreck for his successors.

A state facing an existential threat knows no boundaries. Even the ICJ's 1996 Nuclear Weapons Advisory Opinion affirmed "the fundamental right of every State to survival." The Court also could not declare even the most extreme means unlawful where "the very survival of a State would be at stake."