SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Saudi Arabia lost in four days everything it had accumulated in the Yemen war since 2015

https://x.com/Cosmos_politic/status/2098093972723773617

CosmoTrade | تجارة الكون

Translated from Arabic

Saudi Arabia lost in four days everything it had accumulated in the Yemen war since 2015

Without exaggeration or sensationalism, to understand just how catastrophic what is happening today in Yemen is for Saudi Arabia, we must first understand the context of the Yemeni war itself.

In March 2015, Saudi Arabia launched Operation Decisive Storm and formed a military coalition of several countries under its leadership to fight Ansar Allah.

Years earlier, Ansar Allah was a group primarily based in Saada and northern Yemen, and they fought several wars with the Yemeni army during the era of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh's regime used its war against Ansar Allah, as well as its war against Al-Qaeda and other armed groups, as part of its security relationship with the United States and to secure support from it.

But after what is known as the Arab Spring and the collapse of the old political system in Yemen, everything changed rapidly.

In a relatively short period, Ansar Allah managed to move from Saada and expand southward, then take control of Sanaa in 2014, and afterward they continued their advance until they nearly reached Aden.

And here Saudi Arabia intervened.

Ansar Allah's control of Aden would have meant their proximity to controlling most of Yemen, including its ports and strategic areas overlooking the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden.

Initially, the Saudi intervention did succeed in pushing Ansar Allah forces away from Aden, then Saudi- and Emirati-backed forces recaptured parts of the south and the western coast. After that, the frontlines stabilized, and Yemen entered a prolonged war of attrition.

But over more than ten years of war, with all the money, aircraft, weapons, political and military support that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their allies possessed, they were unable to topple Sanaa, unable to eliminate Ansar Allah, and unable to retake most of the areas they had controlled.

The most significant thing they actually managed to achieve was control over the western coast south of Hodeidah, reaching Al-Makha, Dhubaab, Bab al-Mandab, and the surrounding areas and islands.

This area was practically the most important thing Saudi Arabia and its allies had accumulated militarily in western Yemen over a full ten years of war.

And what has happened now is that Ansar Allah needed only a few days to reclaim nearly all of it.

In about a week of intense ground operations, the frontline that Saudi Arabia and its allies had needed years to form and stabilize collapsed.

And this is a real catastrophe for Saudi Arabia.

To understand why, we must grasp the importance of the western coast itself.

One of the most important Yemeni cities that had remained outside Ansar Allah's control for all the past years was Al-Makha—not just because it is a coastal city, but because it houses an important port and forms the main route toward Bab al-Mandab.

For all the past years, Ansar Allah held Hodeidah port and a limited coastal strip to the north, and from this area they carried out most of their maritime operations against ships linked to Israel during the Gaza war since 2023; then they engaged in direct confrontation with the United States and Britain in the Red Sea through it.

But they were operating from a relatively constrained geographic position.

They had to use long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and naval weapons to reach ships located to the south or near Bab al-Mandab.

And yet, they proved capable of disrupting navigation and forcing major companies to alter their routes.

But imposing a more comprehensive blockade—especially on Saudi oil tankers—was harder as long as Al-Makha and key parts of the western coast and Bab al-Mandab remained outside their control.

The reason is that Saudi Arabia can effectively smuggle its oil via its own tankers, which don't load up much on maritime insurance rates.

And this is what has changed now.

Since the start of the war, Saudi Arabia has imposed a wide blockade on Yemen and areas under Ansar Allah control. It imposed restrictions on Sanaa airport, on port and goods movement, on revenues, salaries, and the economy, and used the blockade as a tool to weaken the Sanaa government and drown it in economic problems.

Ansar Allah decided, as is well known, to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in an attempt to force Saudi Arabia to lift the blockade on them.

Now, Ansar Allah have tightened their control over Yemen's western coast and the gates of Bab al-Mandab, and this elevates their ability to monitor navigation, threaten ships, and target oil tankers to a much greater level than it has been since 2023.

And here lies the danger of what has happened for Saudi Arabia.

For Saudi Arabia—which has so far managed to smuggle a large portion of its oil through the Bab al-Mandab Strait despite the Yemeni blockade—will no longer be able to do so.