The Houthis Just Took Mocha. Saudi Arabia's Last Oil Exit Is in Play.
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2098039541605036034
The Houthis Just Took Mocha.
Saudi Arabia's Last Oil Exit Is in Play.
Houthis seized the Red Sea port of Mocha today and are attacking the Hanish islands.
Government forces are pulling back to Dhubab, directly on Bab el Mandeb, opposite Perim island.
Whoever holds that stretch of coast holds the strait.
Why this is the most important oil headline of the week, ahead of tankers off Kharg.
Hormuz is effectively shut.
Every barrel Saudi Arabia has kept flowing since spring has gone west to Yanbu and out through the Red Sea.
Bab el Mandeb is the exit for that route, and the Houthis have declared a naval blockade on Riyadh since July.
Mocha puts their forces within reach of both shores.
The market has priced Hormuz for 7 months.
It has not priced losing the Red Sea too.
If the Houthis take Dhubab and Perim, Saudi crude has no sea route east or west that is not under fire, Suez traffic that recovered 42% in July goes into reverse and the Sumed pipeline into the Mediterranean becomes the only clean path out of the Gulf.
That is not a $100 world.
It is the scenario that takes real Brent toward the 1980 and 2008 peaks.
2 more things from the same story.
Tehran told Pakistan's envoys that "Iran does not control the Houthis," which means nobody on the phone can call this off and the Wall Street Journal reports Vance and Rubio have privately warned Trump the war could run through January 2029.
Brent held above $100 on all of it.
The strait to watch has changed.
posted by Satish Sharma at
06:31
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