SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Iran built a trap where every American move loses, and the oil chart has been keeping score since July

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2095295646731297142

🇺🇸 Iran built a trap where every American move loses, and the oil chart has been keeping score since July

Robert Pape sees the drone, the barrage and the radar strikes as one designed sequence, a catch-22 with two bad horns.

Do nothing after an Iranian volley and Tehran looks stronger.

Respond and Tehran out-escalates, and Washington looks weaker. Every round since mid-July has run the same way.

He calls the strategy bait and bleed, and it's older than Iran.

Bismarck wanted Napoleon III to attack Prussia, calculated there'd be no quick victory, bled France white for eighteen months, and modern Germany was born in the aftermath.

Each American strike now burns interceptors, spikes oil and rallies Iranians around a government they were supposed to abandon.

The chart is the scoreboard.

Oil stayed tame for the war's first half, then turned straight up in July and hasn't looked back, and the president's ability to talk it down has vanished.

As for why sanctions and hunger don't break them:

"as long as they think they can win, they'll suck it up"

Pape's darker forecast is that the next target won't be a base but the Gulf's governments themselves, whose central banks hold American debt.

@ProfessorPape