Wednesday, 1 July 2026

President Trump could decide tomorrow to return to war. The real question is whether he is willing to pay the price.

 https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2072180959412167041

The United States does have military options. President Trump could decide tomorrow to return to war. The real question is whether he is willing to pay the price. That price is not just measured in military resources. It includes higher oil prices, greater regional instability, and significant consequences for both the U.S. and the global economy, without necessarily changing Tehran's strategic calculations. The reality is that issues such as freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz or removing Iran's enriched uranium cannot be resolved through limited strikes alone. Achieving those objectives would likely require a far larger and longer military commitment, potentially involving tens of thousands of U.S. troops. If President Trump is prepared to bear those costs and commit to a sustained campaign aimed at fundamentally changing the situation, that is one strategic choice. But if he is not, then returning to war is unlikely to improve America's position. Instead, it risks imposing substantial economic costs while leaving the core strategic problems unresolved. #iran
Quote
Alex Ward
@alexbward
Replying to @alexbward
While not making a final decision, Trump has told aides he believes another round of full-scale attacks could derail diplomacy and harm efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuke program. Trump also has told aides that he is fine if negotiations with Tehran blow past the Aug. 18 deadline.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2072180959412167041

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