“Trump’s obsession with Obama, his jealousy and relentless Obama-bashing has led him to depict JCPOA as the worst deal ever, whereas today he’s far from having obtained even 10 % of the concessions that Obama had obtained.”
https://x.com/karimbitar/status/2059772646301069702
I told that “Trump’s obsession with Obama, his jealousy and relentless Obama-bashing has led him to depict JCPOA as the worst deal ever, whereas today he’s far from having obtained even 10 % of the concessions that Obama had obtained.” newarab.com/analysis/us-ir
“Obviously we can criticise the JCPOA because there was no “linkage” to the proxies or the ballistic missiles dossiers,” Bitar added.
“But when it came to the nuclear file, it was rock solid, and even members of the Israeli military and security establishment acknowledged that it prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons. So, this entire war…comes from the original sin: Trump’s unilateral decision to tear up the JCPOA in 2018.”
(…)
Understanding the current crisis requires taking stock of the first Trump administration’s decision to unilaterally pull the US out of the JCPOA in May 2018.
That reckless move fundamentally reshaped the trajectory of relations between Washington and Tehran while dismantling a framework that severely limited and reversed Tehran’s activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
“The truth is that Trump’s obsession with Barack Obama - his jealousy, his relentless need to engage in Obama-bashing - has led him to depict JCPOA as the worst deal ever, whereas today he’s far from having obtained even ten percent of the concessions that Obama had obtained in 2015,” explained Dr Karim Emile Bitar, a lecturer in Middle East Studies at Sciences Po Paris, in an interview with The New Arab.
Under the JCPOA, Iran dramatically reduced its enriched uranium stockpile, capped enrichment levels, reduced the number of centrifuges, and accepted intrusive international inspections, noted Dr Bitar, who added that even many Israeli security officials privately acknowledged that such restrictions had delayed Iran’s path toward a nuclear weapon.
“So far, I do not see any major Iranian concessions on the nuclear dossier.”
(…)
Israel is unlikely to scale back military operationsagainst Hezbollah and may instead intensify pressure to preserve deterrence and constrain Iran’s influence after any agreement.
“If Washington and Tehran reach a diplomatic agreement, [the Israelis] will not take it gladly. They will first try to torpedo the agreement, and then, if Trump insists on signing a deal with the Iranians, the Israelis will try to make sure that it does not include Lebanon. They have already managed to get [Secretary of State] Marco Rubio to say that Israel will reserve the right to defend itself, the usual formula,” said Dr Bitar.
“But we all know that Israel has an elastic and extraordinarily extensive definition of this right to defend itself. So, Lebanon could be the key victim because it’s unlikely that we will see a ceasefire in Lebanon, and it’s even more unlikely that Israel will put an end to this new invasion and this occupation that is growing day after day, and they are bombing way beyond the so-called yellow zone,” he added.”
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posted by Satish Sharma at
08:31
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