SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: President Trump has boxed himself into a corner. Kinetic strikes, while militarily successful, did not force Iran to capitulate or topple.

https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2051460665186091325

Brett Erickson

President Trump has boxed himself into a corner. Kinetic strikes, while militarily successful, did not force Iran to capitulate or topple. The blockade has been nothing short of a disaster predicated on unrealistic timelines. And now, “Operation Freedom” may once again turn this into an active war.
(Yes, I know a blockade is an act of war)

What is most concerning to me, is the TOTAL lack of coherence from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent. 

Just yesterday, we heard Bessent state that Iran has “a week” until they are forced to shut-in their oil wells. 

A week ago, we heard Trump tell Fox News that Iran’s “oil infrastructure will explode in three days”. Now, on the High Hewitt show today, he said Iran has “two weeks”. 

Additionally, my own projections put this timeline in the range of 50-80 days… possibly longer, and this analysis has been backed by other prominent experts who shall not be named that heavily influenced the initial timeline projections.

We’re asleep at the wheel, and have no way out. 

The Strait is closed. We’re losing close to 13M barrels per day. Well more than 600M barrels have been lost throughout the conflict. 

Bessent can’t decide if we should “jiu-jitsu” the Iranian’s by unsanctioning their oil, or if we should impose a blockade to shut-in their oil wells in 3 days… or 13… 2 weeks? A month and a half? 

No Pete, we do not control the Strait. 
No Scott, we are not Jiujitsuing the Iranian’s.
No Donald, their old infrastructure is not going to “explode”. 

It is time to step down from our maximalist demands, abandon the sunk cost fallacy, and make hard and painful decisions at the negotiating table because we have been strategically outplayed with no viable path to success remaining. 

Enough is enough.