While the UAE is in crisis, Saudi Arabia is masterfully riding the wave with calculated diplomatic skill.
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2051521391128612870
Saudi Arabia diplomatic Masterstroke
While the UAE is in crisis, Saudi Arabia is masterfully riding the wave with calculated diplomatic skill.
The Emirates’ military alliance with Israel is not welcomed by the Saudis, as I wrote days ago. However, a resumption of war with Iran is also not viewed favorably by Riyadh, and the response is quite simple.
The Saudis were diplomatically skillful in weaving an agreement with the Houthis, transforming what was once a lethal threat into a shield for their facilities and vessels. This includes their ships transiting near the coast of Somalia, which used to be an area of immense risk for Saudi shipping.
On another front, the Saudis reached an agreement with Iran that safeguarded their pipeline to Yanbu. This ensures they can export over 50% of their output via the Red Sea; however, with rising oil prices, the Saudis have offset part of these losses by selling less, the masterstroke of Saudi strategy since the founding of OPEC.
The bet on the US and Israel provides the Emirates with military cover, but Saudi Arabia holds the strategic depth. The trend points toward a rift in the Gulf: a Saudi-led axis favoring regional diplomacy, and an Emirati-led axis betting on external military force. You don't need to be a geopolitical expert to see that Israeli troops in the Emirates will only deepen their isolation from their neighbors.
The Saudis are making a hidden and ambitious bet, that this rapprochement between the Emirates and Israel is temporary and will weaken both internal and external support for the UAE, eventually forcing MBZ to come and beg for Saudi assistance.
Riyadh has fulfilled its agreement to grant land and airspace to the Americans, kept most of its infrastructure intact by negotiating with Iran, struck an excellent deal with the Houthis, and is now betting against the Emirates without firing a single shot.
Full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p
posted by Satish Sharma at
10:54
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