SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: with Trump self-sabotage is consistently the default option.

https://x.com/MouinRabbani/status/2045262337775489510

Mouin Rabbani

Trump is a specialist in self-sabotage.

It is pretty clear that the US concluded its recent ceasefire agreement with Iran, and is now on the cusp of signing a framework agreement with it that extends the ceasefire for a considerable period, because the price shocks produced by this war are about to transition to a series of supply shocks.

The inability of the US and Israel to achieve any of their war goals, and the mounting economic damage during an election year, essentially forced Trump’s hand.

Washington’s off-ramp consisted of a simple deal with Tehran: a ceasefire in Lebanon in exchange for unimpeded commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. 

There also appears to be some agreement about releasing frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran renewing its pledge to maintain the civilian nature of its nuclear program, but this has yet to be confirmed.

The US and Iran issued their respective announcements about Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil dropped like a stone, and the planet breathed a huge sigh of relief.

That wasn’t good enough for Trump. He then felt compelled to make a series of false statements about additional Iranian concessions to stroke his own ego and project a false image of victory.

Most importantly, Trump stated that the US would maintain its apparently limited blockade of Iranian ports. Entirely predictably, Iran responded that if the blockade was maintained so too would its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz.

Now imagine you’re a maritime insurance broker in London watching the news and reading Trump’s social media. Are you going to reduce insurance rates to a level that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picks up again, or play it safe and avoid unnecessary risk?

Entirely unnecessary, entirely avoidable, but with Trump self-sabotage is consistently the default option.