SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Trump cannot make any real formal concessions to Iran. Here’s why:

https://x.com/m4h007/status/2044927638637302194

Majid Hosseini

Trump cannot make any real formal concessions to Iran. 

Here’s why:

Based on the reporting so far, Iranian delegation had come to Islamabad with the view that Iran has won the war, and expected to get major concessions from Vance. They were surprised to find out that Vance isn’t willing to back off from Trump’s original maximalist demands. 

Even if Iran’s tactical and strategic wins become far bigger, Trump’s position won’t be different. 

First, this won’t be acceptable to Israel and its lobby. Trump will have to explicitly defy Netanyahu and Miriam Adelson, something he has not done. 

Nonetheless, let’s assume Trump made a formal agreement to concede any of Iran’s demands in its 10-point list. For the sake of argument, let’s assume Trump signs an agreement with Iran that 

A) Iran will not develop nuclear weapons
 
B) Iran will suspend uranium enrichment for 5 years and after that only at or below 3.67%

C) US accepts Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a tolling system for 50 years as reparations for the war

D) Iran will downblend its HEU to 3.67% 

This is the absolute best deal Trump can get from Iran, and even this is very doubtful, considering the significant leverage Iran has through the control of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Democrats and the media would immediately start attacking him for starting an unnecessary war, and giving advantages to Iran that it previously didn’t have. Explicitly, they will blame him for a deal that is objectively worse than JCPOA. Media will agree with them that this is worse than JCPOA. 

This will make him even more unpopular. He will be a weak president. 

An important observation to make is the multiple War Powers Resolutions that have come to the floor so far. They all instruct Trump to end the war and bring the American soldiers home. Most Democrats have voted for them and most Republicans have voted against. 

Democrats will use this fact against every Republican who voted against those War Powers Resolutions. They will use these votes in November and for the foreseeable future. 

Every Republican will be attacked for “Enabling a mentally impaired President to launch and continue an unnecessary war that ended up making more concessions than JCPOA to Mullahs and Terrorists in Iran.” 

Even if that member survives the November elections, this line will be hammered for as long as that member is in politics, not just for their re-election. Imagine a Congressman aspiring to become a Senator and the Senator with Presidential aspirations. 

Think about the countless times people had to recant and regret their vote for the Iraq war. Every one of these War Powers resolutions creates a paper trail that will come back for decades to come. 

This is why Democrats push the vote, not because they want to finish the war. Chris Murphy, vehemently anti-war before the war, immediately attacked Trump for accepting Iran’s demands as basis for negotiations. Chuck Schumer followed quickly. 

So, at that point, Trump is a weak president with no mandate left, and a Republican party ready to be picked apart by Democrats. 

1-Nothing he signs is binding on the United States and can be undone by an act of Congress. An act that these Republicans will gladly join Democrats in voting for. Even if Trump ignores it, the next President can’t. 

2- As soon as Democrats win November, they’ll use their power to go after Trump. They won’t be able to remove him through impeachment (needs 67 votes in the senate), but they can open investigations against him and his family. These can be used in 2028 to go after him and his family. 
Their results can also be used to attack Congressional Republicans. 

This is why Trump can’t sign a formal agreement that is acceptable to Iran. Every agreement to be signed needs to be materially worse than JCPOA for Iran, something Iran will not agree to.