The Blockade of the Blockade
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2043490931886707108
The Blockade of the Blockade
If the greatest pressure on the American government comes from the low amount of oil on the market, then another blockade would tend to push prices even higher and could become catastrophic if the other strait is closed or if there is a new attack on Saudi facilities.
It’s like a wrestler suffering a leg lock who then applies another lock on the same leg, but higher up, aiming to decrease the pain of the first lock.
The idea that Iran will stop exporting oil and have its economy collapse is real, but not in the short term. Meanwhile, the political and economic pressure on Trump, who faces elections this year, tends to intensify in the short term.
This is not a war that Iran did not expect. On the contrary, it prepared for it and certainly has lines of credit with the Chinese. Moreover, in the face of any blockade, it can continue to maintain basic commercial flows through the Iran-Asia railway.
This is a military and diplomatic war for professionals, not for amateurs.
posted by Satish Sharma at
06:50
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