Ukraine - Zelinski's 'Victory Plan' Charade

 

moon of alabama

On August 27 the former president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski announced that he would soon present a plan for ending the war with Russia:

kraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that the war with Russia would eventually end in dialogue, but that Kyiv had to be in a strong position and that he would present a plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and his two potential successors.

The Ukrainian leader, addressing a news conference, said Kyiv's three-week-old incursion into Russia's Kursk region was part of that plan, but that it also comprised other steps on the economic and diplomatic fronts.

"The main point of this plan is to force Russia to end the war. And I want that very much - (that it would be) fair for Ukraine," he told reporters in Kyiv of the war launched by Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
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Zelenskiy said he hoped to go to the United States in September to attend the U.N. General Assembly in New York and that he was preparing to meet Biden.

The plan will also be presented to the presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

It is believed that this announcement came in response to a silent request by Ukraine's supporters for a longer term perspective.

Details of the plan have since leaked bit by bit:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed a new detail about the victory plan he plans to present to US President Joe Biden next week.
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"Decisions regarding the plan mostly depend on him [Biden – ed.]. They depend on other allies too, but there are points that depend on positive will and support from the United States. I really hope he will back this plan," Zelenskyy said.
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"This plan is based on decisions which would need to be adopted within the period from October to December… Then the plan will work, we think," he said.

Earlier, Zelenskyy revealed that the plan consists of four points to increase Ukraine's defence capability, "plus another one that we’ll need after the war".

The 'victory plan' is not about a real plan for Ukraine's action but a list of demands towards the 'western' supporters of Ukraine.

The theory in Kiev is that a fulfillment of these demands will allow Ukraine to win the war and to press Russian into accepting Ukraine's 10 point 'peace plan'.

As explained by a Zelinski advisor:

A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent that the "victory plan" aims "to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit."
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"The problem is, to get to that point where we have any sort of peace negotiations, Russia must feel like they're going to lose, and we are not there yet," Rep. Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee in Congress, told the Kyiv Independent.

"I hope part of this victory plan is how we can shape battlefield conditions to reach that point," said Panetta, who met Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last weekend.

From other reporting we know that Zelenski's 'victory plan' demands include:

• to allow unrestricted long range missile strikes into Russia
• to invite Ukraine in the borders of 1991 to join NATO at a nearby date
• to immediately negotiate and accept Ukraine's membership in the the European Union
• to permanently supply advanced heavy weapons to Ukraine
• to provide additional hundreds of billions of dollars for 'reconstruction' without any restrictions attached to it

The 'victory plan' requests are of course outrageous and delusional and have little to no chance to be fulfilled.

Zelenski's opposition in Ukraine is therefore convinced that the plan was formulated to get rejected. The refusal of the plan would be used by Zelenski to then justify peace negotiations with Russia (machine translation):

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will pass on his "victory plan" to the United States in order to get a refusal and then start negotiations with Russia.

This opinion was expressed by former Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko.

According to Lutsenko, that is why the Ukrainian government constantly blames the allies for the situation at the front.

"The entire propaganda machine of the President's Office constantly hammers into the heads of Ukrainians that we have problems only because the United States does not want to give us permission for long – range missiles Jassm, Atacms, Storm shadow / Scalp," the ex-prosecutor general wrote.

Zelenski's, not Ukraine's, real victory plan would thus go like this:

According to Lutsenko, Zelensky act according to this plan:

1. We are submitting a new mega-list of requirements for weapons and money to the United States.
2. We have polite doubts that this will change the course of the war and lead us to the borders of 1991.
3. We declare that we have been abandoned and have no other choice but to return to the World Forums with the participation of Russia.
4. During the negotiations, we receive demands from Putin in the style of Istanbul.
5. We declare that this is the subject of a referendum and that a ceasefire is necessary for this.
6. We sign a cease-fire.
7. We pose as the president of the world and hold presidential elections. Preferably - without lifting martial law, so that democracy does not interfere, and the military recruitment offices can manage the polling stations.

Lutsenko called it a "cynical show" that " is easily read by both ukrpolitikum and our allies."

Zelenski's real plan, as listed by Lutsenko, sounds nifty and would probably work in a normal state. But Ukraine is a state in which a small minority of well armed and ruthless fascists have control over all major political decisions. They are adamant against any negotiations with, or concessions to Russia and have threatened to overthrow any government that would try to go that way.

It is hard to see how Zelenski can get convince those men to agree with his plans.

Posted by b on September 21, 2024 at 14:45 UTC | Permalink

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