Russia and China Have Big Plans in Space

 29.04.2021 Author: Ulson Gunnar

Column: Society

Region: Russia in the World

The trend of shifting away from the Washington-led unipolar “international order” toward multipolarism is not just unfolding here on Earth but far above it in orbit and even beyond.

Washington’s continued campaign of belligerence toward Moscow has even complicated one of the few fields of constructive cooperation between the two nations, cooperation in space.

This includes the 22 year old International Space Station (ISS) which is a combination of Russian, American, European and Japanese modules and host astronauts from nations around the world.

However, even this impressive achievement, both technical and in the realm of cooperation, is tainted by politics. The ISS excludes several nations from cooperation including China, an increasingly important ally of Russia (and many other nations around the globe).

The US more recently targeted its cooperation with Russia in particular by attempting to ban the sale of Russian rocket engines to US-based aerospace company, United Launch Alliance. While “security” concerns were cited, the ban was motivated in reality by the crisis in Ukraine and Washington’s frustration over the rejoining of Crimea with the Russian Federation in 2014.

While the ban was partially lifted due to ULA’s dependence on Russian rocket technology, efforts have continued to sever cooperation between the US and Russia.

The Lunar Gateway project was deemed “too US-centric” for major participation by Russia, SpaceNews would report in their article, “Russia skeptical about participating in lunar Gateway.” The minimizing of Russia’s role in projects up in space appears to be a continuation of Washington’s policies to minimize and isolate Russia’s influence back on Earth.

And just as on Earth where Russia finds itself turning toward other partners to continue moving forward, it is seeking out partners up in space to continue advancing there as well.

The Guardian in its article, “China and Russia unveil joint plan for lunar space station,” would report:

Russia and China have unveiled plans for a joint lunar space station, with the Russian space agency Roscosmos saying it has signed an agreement with China’s National Space Administration (CNSA) to develop a “complex of experimental research facilities created on the surface and/or in the orbit of the moon”.

While it is easy for nations to propose and unveil plans, Russian-Chinese cooperation in space appears to be more than just wishful thinking. Russia has a decades-long proven track record of putting people into space using its venerated Soyuz launch system. It has not only contributed to key modules of the current ISS, but maintained the previously longest-orbiting space station in history, Mir.

Russia is also considering construction of its own national space station. Another Guardian article, this one titled, “Russia: we’ll leave International Space Station and build our own,” would note:

Russia is ready to start building its own space station with the aim of launching it into orbit by 2030 if President Vladimir Putin gives the go-ahead, the head of its Roscosmos space agency has said.

The article cites a “crisis over human rights, cyberattacks and other issues” as the cause of breakdowns in an otherwise constructive relationship in space between the US and Russia. However, the Guardian’s own wording and one-sided analysis of deteriorating relations points to the actual reason these ties are fraying, deliberate and dishonest Western antagonism.

Russia is clearly capable of building its own space station. It has done so before and it has maintained the skills and knowledge necessary to do so again through its continuous contributions to the ISS, the next module of which has been built by Russia and is scheduled for launch to the ISS this year.

Combined with China, this expertise in an orbital version of multipolarism may be a potent mix.

China has not only put its own “taikonauts” into space, but has tested temporary space station modules in orbit in preparation for the construction of its first permanent space station to begin this year.

New Scientist in an article titled, “China is about to start building a space station in orbit,” would report:

China is about to launch the first section of a new space station, beginning an orbital construction project that is expected to end in 2022 with an outpost about a quarter of the size of the International Space Station (ISS).

The article also notes that:

The Chinese Space Station (CSS) will be the 11th crewed space station ever built. It is China’s third station, although the previous two were significantly smaller. The CSS will be slightly larger than Mir, the Soviet space station that preceded the ISS.

China has also begun the process of mastering unmanned missions to both the moon and to Mars. With Russian and Chinese space stations in Earth orbit in the years to come, a Russian-Chinese project to operate in competition with the West’s Lunar Gateway appears plausible.

The implications of multiple space stations operating in Earth orbit and multiple Lunar projects taking shape for geopolitics back on Earth means that other nations being excluded by Western-centric space programs and projects will have the opportunity to participate alongside Russia and China instead, thus creating a greater balance of power both on Earth and in orbit above it.

The West may feel its primacy slipping away, thus driving it to more overt belligerence and a general sense of insecurity about its place within the international community (and above it in space). However, it is missing a key opportunity to lead the world into a multipolar future and will instead be seen as kicking and screaming to avoid its inevitable emergence.

The West’s expertise and accomplishments in space are impressive, but its lack of interest in cooperating with nations like Russia and China only seem to ensure that the conflict and violence the West has driven on Earth for decades will spread into and continue onward in space into the foreseeable future.

But just like on Earth, cooperation and multipolarism led by Russia and China could help minimize the danger of this belligerence and drive unprecedented development and human achievement both on Earth and beyond it.

Gunnar Ulson, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

https://journal-neo.org/2021/04/29/russia-and-china-have-big-plans-in-space/

India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy

 

1. Uma S Kambhampati

   Professor of Economics; Head of School, University of Reading

The second wave of the pandemic has struck India with a devastating impact. With over 300,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths across the country each day at present, the total number of deaths has just passed the 200,000 mark – that’s about one in 16 of all COVID deaths across the world. It is also evident that the India statistics are significant underestimates.

The virulence of the second wave in India seems to be related to a confluence of factors: government complacency, driven by poor data collection and being in denial about the reality of the data; a new variant with a hockey-stick shaped growth curve; and some very large and unregulated religious and political events.

It is clear that there is now a humanitarian crisis of significant proportions. India is a country of 1.4 billion people and makes up a sixth of the world’s population. Here are some ways in which it is also going to affect the world economy:

1. A lost year for India?

India is itself the fifth largest economy in the world and contributes significantly to world economic growth. With relatively high growth rates (of between 4% and 8%) and its large size, it has a significant impact on the world economy.

Even in early 2020, before the pandemic took hold, the IMF had cited India’s indifferent output as the main reason for sluggish world growth figures in 2018 and 2019. The IMF downgraded its 2020 forecast to 5.8% partly because it expected more of the same from the subcontinent. Now it looks as if world growth for 2020 was down by around 4%, with India down 10%.

Family members outside a mortuary in New Delhi. EPA

Everyone has been expecting a great rebound in 2021 from both India and the world, but that now looks seriously doubtful. For instance, Sonal Varma, India chief economist at the investment group Nomura, predicts that India’s GDP will shrink around 1.5% in the current quarter. Coupled with significant pandemic-related problems also in Brazil and South Africa, we might expect the impact on world growth to be considerable – even before taking any knock-on effects into account.

2. International restrictions

In terms of knock-on effects, the scale of the crisis in India is likely to mean that international restrictions remain in place for longer than hoped. In the words of Soumya Swaminathan, the chief scientist of the World Health Organization (WHO): “The virus doesn’t respect borders, or nationalities, or age, or sex or religion.” As others have asked rhetorically, can a country of this size be isolated?

On a recent flight from New Delhi to Hong Kong, for instance, 52 passengers tested positive for COVID. We also know that the Indian variant is already in the UK (while some of India’s second wave, notably in the Punjab, has been caused by the UK variant).

Preventing this spread from India requires strict quarantines and travel restrictions. This is bad news for airlines, airports and the businesses that depend on them, so this too will have a large dampening effect on global economic growth.

3. Pharma problems

The pharmaceutical industry in India is the third largest in the world in terms of volume and 11th largest in terms of value. It contributes 3.5% of the total drugs and medicines exported globally and about 20% of the global exports of generic drugs. If these exports are in doubt, there will be all sorts of consequences for healthcare around the world, which will again feed through to global growth.

Above all, in the current situation, India produces 70% of the world’s vaccines. Serum Institute of India (SII) has been given the rights to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine for 64 low-income countries in the WHO’s Covax progamme, as well as 5 million doses destined for the UK.

India is no longer supplying vaccines to the world. Anil Shakya

The crisis in India has already meant that these exports of the vaccine have been postponed or called off, leaving many countries vulnerable to fresh waves of the virus and probably delaying their efforts to return to business as usual. If India is unable to provide vaccine supplies to the rest of the world, we can expect spillover effects in the form of recurrent lockdowns, increased need for social-distancing measures, and a significant decrease in economic activity.

4. Services not rendered

India provides back-office staff for many activities in western Europe and the US, especially in the health and financial sectors. With these services now in jeopardy, the US Chamber of Commerce, for one, is concerned that the Indian economy could create “a drag for the global economy”.

For the UK, too, trade links with India are especially important in the aftermath of Brexit. This is demonstrated by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s two attempts to visit in 2021 - both cancelled at the last minute because of the pandemic.

Given all these issues, and the humanitarian crisis unfolding, it has become imperative for the world to act quickly to help India – whether such help is requested or not. We are seeing signs of this coming through, albeit after a short delay, from the UK (oxygen concentrators, ventilators); the US (vaccine raw materials, drugs, rapid tests and ventilators); and Germany (oxygen and medical aid).

Oxygen is now the most important commodity in India. EPA

Whatever is provided is likely to be a drop in the ocean of India’s requirements, but at least it demonstrates a recognition that we are in this together. The Indian government may have been ineffective in the current crisis, but failing to recognise how it will affect the world would amount to an equivalent level of complacency. If the leading powers fail to do everything they can to help out, India’s crisis will become a world crisis in short order, not only for health but also for the economy.

• Pharmaceuticals
• Vaccines
• Financial services
• India
• Coronavirus
• COVID-19
• world economy

https://theconversation.com/india-covid-crisis-four-reasons-it-will-derail-the-world-economy-160024

Watchdog: US Aid to Venezuela Was Used to Push Regime Change

 

The US viewed USAID as a 'key tool' to put pressure on Maduro

by Dave DeCamp 

Posted onApril 29, 2021CategoriesNewsTagsVenezuela

A report from the US Agency for International Development’s (USAID) watchdog found that aid allocated for Venezuela in 2019 was used as part of the Trump administration’s failed regime change effort.

In January 2019, the US and many of its allies recognized Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela in an attempt to unseat Nicolas Maduro. As part of this policy, USAID started coordinating aid deliveries with Guaido.

The report from USAID’s Inspector General reads: “In January and February 2019, the US Government identified USAID’s humanitarian assistance for Venezuelans as also serving as a key tool to elevate support to the Venezuelan Interim Government and increase pressure on the Maduro regime.”

In February 2019, USAID sent 368 tons of aid worth $2 million to the Colombia-Venezuela border and the Caribbean island of Curacao. A media frenzy ensued as the Trump administration tried to force the Venezuelan government to accept the aid.

Since the US was calling for Maduro to be overthrown, he did not allow the trucks carrying the aid to enter the country from Colombia and stopped them at the border. One truck was set on fire, which US media outlets initially blamed on Venezuelan forces. But it turned out the blaze was started by a molotov cocktail thrown from the Colombian side of the border.

The Inspector General’s report makes it even more apparent that the attempt to ram the aid into Venezuela was merely a political stunt. For example, the aid was dramatically delivered to Colombia in giant Air Force C-17 cargo planes when there were cheaper commercial delivery options available.

The report also found that the aid package included ready-to-use supplemental food even though USAID said this type of commodity was not necessary after determining the nutritional status of Venezuelan children. Ultimately, only eight out of the 360 tons allocated for Venezuela made it into the country. The rest was delivered inside Colombia or shipped to Somalia.

Under direction from Guaido, USAID also minimized funding to the UN agencies that already had infrastructure set up in Venezuela to deliver aid. A Venezuelan non-governmental organization, which wasn’t named in the report, was awarded funding because it had US-aligned interests.

The Trump administration’s regime change effort came with a failed coup attempt and a brutal sanctions regime that has had a devastating impact on Venezuela’s civilian population. President Biden has continued the policy, continues to recognize Guaido, and appears to have no interest in giving Venezuela sanctions relief.

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/04/29/watchdog-us-aid-to-venezuela-was-used-to-push-regime-change/

China Says US Has Ramped Up Military Activity Near Its Coast Under Biden

 

Activity in Chinese-claimed waters has risen 20% for US warships and 40% for military aircraft since Biden came into office

by Dave DeCamp 

Posted onApril 29, 2021CategoriesNewsTagsBiden, China

China said on Thursday said that the US has ramped up military activity near its coast since President Biden came into office. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said operations had increased by more than 20 percent for US warships and 40 percent for military aircraft in waters claimed by Beijing.

“The US frequently dispatches ships and planes to operate in seas and airspace near China, promoting regional militarization and threatening regional peace and stability,” Wu said.

One incident Wu discussed took place in early April, when the US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Mustin conducted a “close-up reconnaissance” of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and its strike group. Wu said the Chinese vessels “warned off” the Mustin. After the incident, the US Navy released a provocative photo that showed officers watching the Liaoning from the deck of the Mustin.

The US officers watch the Liaoning from the deck of the Mustin (US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Arthur Rosen)

US warships continue to be spotted shadowing the Liaoning. Satellite images captured on Monday showed a US guided-missile destroyer sailing amongst the Liaoning and five other Chinese warships. Considering the US can easily monitor Chinese vessels using satellites or spy planes, sailing so close to the Liaoning is clearly meant to stoke tensions and send a message to Beijing.

The US frequently sails warships near Chinese-controlled islands in the South China Sea and through the sensitive Taiwan Strait. The Trump administration significantly escalated these provocations and the US military’s overall presence in the region. The fact that President Biden is ramping this activity up even more makes it clear that his foreign policy priority is confronting Beijing.

On Wednesday night, in his first address to Congress, Biden said the US is in competition with China to “win the 21st century.” He also said that he told Chinese President Xi Jinping that the US would militarize the Indo-Pacific “just as we do with NATO in Europe.”

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/04/29/china-says-us-has-ramped-up-military-activity-near-its-coast-under-biden/

China Accuses US of ‘Cold War Thinking’ in Response to Biden’s Address

President Biden said the US is in competition with China to 'win the 21st century' in his first address to Congress

by Dave DeCamp Posted onApril 29, 2021CategoriesNewsTagsChina

On Thursday, Beijing responded to President Biden’s first address to Congress where he said the US was in competition with China to “win the 21st century.”

When asked about the speech, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that competition between the two countries was natural. “But this kind of competition should be a track and field race, not a duel to the death,” he said.

“The US always demands that others follow the rules while violating the rules themselves,” Wang added. “It is in nature out of Cold War thinking and ideological bias, and is a sign of lack of self-confidence. We hope the US can discard the mentality of sour grapes towards China.”

President Biden has framed the competition between the US and China as an ideological battle between “autocracy” and “democracy.” Wang warned the US that trying to force other countries to accept Washington’s version of democracy “will only create divisions, intensify tension and undermine stability.”

Biden also addressed Washington’s military plans for Asia to counter Beijing in his address. He said he told Chinese President Xi Xinping that the US will militarize the Indo-pacific region “just as we do with NATO in Europe.”

Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said on Thursday that the US has significantly increased its military activity near China’s coast since Biden came into office. Wu said operations had increased by more than 20 percent for US warships and 40 percent for military aircraft in waters claimed by Beijing

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/04/29/china-accuses-us-of-cold-war-thinking-in-response-to-bidens-address/

Iran Hopes for Better Saudi Ties After ‘Change of Tone’

Saudis concern secret talks in Baghdad

by Jason Ditz 

Posted onApril 29, 2021CategoriesNewsTagsIran, Saudi Arabia

On April 9 it was reported that Iraq had put together secret talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Baghdad. Officials are now confirming as much, and Iranian and Saudi officials are both talking of a new era of cooperation and improved ties.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman confirmed this week that he’s hoping for a “good and special relationship,” and Iranian Foreign Ministry officials say they are welcoming the “change of tone” and the opportunity for peace and stability.

This is a big change, as  Iran and Saudi Arabia have been seen as the heads of Shi’ite and Sunni Islam, respectively, and fighting a de facto proxy war for decades. The Saudis have been vilifying Iran, and vice versa. Even the idea of secret talks didn’t seem poxxible in recent years.

The Saudis may have realized that the situation isn’t so good for going all-in anti-Iran just now, and that they see a rapprochement as a possibility worth exploring. With the near-term Saudi interest in working something out in Yemen, having a working relationship in Iran would certainly be a good start.

A rapprochement with Iran could be complicating in some ways too, however. Saudi officials have recently made inroads on new ties with Israel, and since Israel’s priority is anti-Iran all day, every day, it’s unlikely they’ll welcome any shift in ties.

Iraq stands to gain the most from this, as they border both nations and would just as soon not get drawn into any conflicts between them.

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/04/29/iran-hopes-for-better-saudi-ties-after-change-of-tone/

The U.S. Congress Turns on Itself: Censuring and Threats of Expulsion Proliferating

Philip GIRALDI

Ph.D., Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest.eats of E

Recently there have been some appalling cases that underline how far the American Congress has separated itself from any tangible national interest.

Mark Twain once wrote that “It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress.” Some developments over the past several weeks would certainly support that judgement if one regards a country’s legislative body as a mechanism intended to benefit the public that it is elected to serve. The hypocrisy of America’s two major parties is something to behold, with corruption at a level that is rarely attained in most third world countries.

Recently there have been some appalling cases that underline how far the American Congress has separated itself from any tangible national interest if one excludes getting rich and reelected, in whichever order one seeks to go about that. One of the best at getting rich and reelected in spite of not having two brain cells to rub together is the esteemed Maxine Waters of California, who has starred in her recent attempt to inspire an angry mob to get more “confrontational” if the murder trial of Minneapolis policeman Derek Chauvin were to go the wrong way through a failure to convict.

Now bear in mind that we Americans live in a no-fault no-accountability society, where no one is guilty of anything unless he or she is caught red handed and has no protectors in place to deny that anything at all happened. As Maxine has plenty of defenders because she is black, a woman and, most of all, a Democrat, it should have been expected that in her case a call to riot by a congressman would be treated as a non-event, and so it proved when the GOP made a feeble attempt to censure her for her behavior.

As Maxine represents part of California, her appearance in Minnesota was little more than race baiting with a threat of violence thrown in. Attempts to characterize it as free speech on her part ignore the fact that she is a government official, paid for generously by the taxpayer, and a call to violence by one part of the citizenry directed against both the legal system and another constituency cannot be considered acceptable. It is indeed impeachable.

One has to wonder who paid for Waters’ Minnesota trip and marvel at her audacity when she asked for and received an armed police escort for her own safety as she traveled to and from the airport. Perhaps her calls to de-fund the police were on hold until after she completed her travels. It is also important to realize that due to the seniority afforded by her 29 years in office she is, in spite of her lack of anything describable as patriotism of even integrity, part of the House Democratic leadership. She’s Chief Majority Whip, has been the chairperson of the House Black Caucus, and is the ranking member on the House Financial Services Committee. Never before has anyone attained so much having so little to offer.

But the story does not end there, which is where the true mendacity of the U.S. Congress comes to the surface. When the Republicans rightly attempted to censure Waters it was inevitable that the recent impeachment of President Donald Trump for the use of incendiary language when addressing a crowd at the Capitol on January 6th would come up, but the Democratic Party leadership was having none of that. The Hill reports that shortly before the Waters censure vote, rather than accepting that the two offenses were of a kind, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer instead delivered a threat, warning the Republican leadership that forcing a roll call on censuring Waters would make it more difficult to justify not taking similar action targeting Republican members of Congress. “This makes it harder, however, not to proceed on numerous [similar] resolutions on my side of the aisle” he said.

So the game is on under new rules. The leadership of the Democratic and Republican Parties have declared that they will impose punishment, including censure, suspension and even expulsion, on House and Senate members who defy the consensus on appropriate behavior, which itself has become heavily politicized.

The first Republican who is likely to feel the wrath of the Democratic controlled Congress is Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. Representative Jimmy Gomez of California has already circulated a draft letter renewing his earlier effort to expel her from Congress. Gomez cited Greene for her alleged promotion of violence against other members of Congress. In his letter he included her promotion of “Anglo-Saxon political traditions” as yet another justification for her expulsion from Congress. The “Dear Colleague” letter begins with “[E]veryone – including House Republican leadership – knew this stunt was nothing more than an effort to promote white supremacy in the United States Congress.” He, of course, also claimed that she was engaged in the “brazen promotion of anti-Semitism and racism.” Somehow the anti-Semitism tag always seems to make it into these documents.

Gomez’s expulsion resolution already has 72 Democratic co-sponsors. House Democrats as well as 11 Republicans had already voted in February to strip Greene of her committee assignments over her alleged past endorsements of violence against Democrats and embrace of conspiracy theories to include suggesting that some mass shootings have been staged.

Greene, for her part, has tit for tat submitted a resolution to expel Waters based on her encouraging supporters to harass Trump administration officials when they made public appearances in 2018 while also saying a year earlier that she would “go and take Trump out tonight. “This is nothing new from Maxine Waters. She has been inciting violence and terrorism for the last 29 years,” Greene said in a statement.

Despite the current wave of lawmakers introducing measures to formally sanction each other, it seldom occurs that the House actually takes such a drastic step. Only 23 lawmakers have been censured in the House’s history and only five were expelled, mostly for actual criminal behavior. Nevertheless, the new environment condoning punishment of colleagues in Congress is only just gaining momentum and the Democrats clearly have the whip hand with their control of both houses of Congress and the presidency. To be sure, free speech is the most important liberty guaranteed in the Bill of Rights of the Constitution of the United States, but the right of legislators to call on citizens to break the law up to and including the destruction of that very government that pays them and gives them their status has to be challenged. Say what they will when they are out of office, but when they take that oath of loyalty to the constitution it means that they are pledged to support all of those structures and safeguards that that foundational document has established.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/04/29/us-congress-turns-on-itself-censuring-and-threats-expulsion-proliferating/

xpulsion Proliferating

e U.S. Congress Turns on Itself: Censuring and Threats of Expulsion Proliferating

Israeli Minister: Our Warplanes Can Reach Iran

 

The threat comes as the US and Iran are negotiating a revival of the JCPOA, which Israel is strongly opposed to

by Dave DeCamp 

Posted onApril 29, 2021CategoriesNewsTagsIran, Israel

An Israeli cabinet minister stepped up the threatening rhetoric against Iran, warning that a US return to the nuclear deal would mean war, and said that Israeli warplanes can reach the Islamic Republic.

“A bad deal will send the region spiraling into war,” Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen told Reuters. Anyone seeking short-term benefits should be mindful of the longer-term. Israel will not allow Iran to attain nuclear arms. Iran has no immunity anywhere. Our planes can reach everywhere in the Middle East – and certainly Iran.”

Israel claims the JCPOA is a path to a nuclear-armed Iran because the agreement has an expiration date. But that ignores the fact that Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program, the only one in the Middle East.

High-level Israeli officials visited Washington this week to voice their opposition to the JCPOA as the Biden administration is participating in indirect negotiations with Tehran over that aim to revive the agreement. Israel’s Ambassador to the US Gilad Erdan said on Thursday that Israeli officials conveyed to the US that they will not be bound by the JCPOA and will continue to take action against Tehran.

Erdan said Israeli military officials told their US counterparts that “the freedom of action of Israel to prevent Iran from becoming an existential threat is a freedom of action that will be preserved.” He said the Biden administration “respects” Israel’s position.

Israel has already taken covert action against Iran to sabotage the nuclear negotiations. Most notably was the incident at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, which caused an explosion. The US has tried to distance itself from the dangerous attack but has refused to condemn it.

When asked about the Natanz attack on Wednesday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said, “We certainly believe that there are certain kinds of activities that are unhelpful to diplomacy.” Sullivan also said the US and Israel have a policy of “no surprises,” which suggests Washington could have had foreknowledge of the attack.

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/04/29/israeli-minister-our-warplanes-can-reach-iran/