Prof. Steve Keen: ‘FAMINES UNAVOIDABLE because of Strait of Hormuz closure. Up to 2 BILLION could starve.’
https://x.com/afshinrattansi/status/2079188082998603843
Prof. Steve Keen: ‘FAMINES UNAVOIDABLE because of Strait of Hormuz closure. Up to 2 BILLION could starve.’
‘The extent to which we’re reliant upon chemical fertilisers derived from oil feedstock is extremely high. In the absence of the Haber-Bosch process and the process for producing both nitrogenous fertilisers and phosphate-based fertilisers, without the oil, you can’t produce them.
And 30% of the world’s fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly speaking.
Now, without the fertiliser in general, the carrying capacity of the planet falls from about 8.5 billion people, which is how many people we have right now, down to between 1 and 2 billion. That’s the extent to which we’re reliant upon petroleum-based fertilisers for food output.
If you lose 30% of the fertiliser that the planet relies upon, at the extreme that implies that something of the order of only 6 billion people can be supported by our food systems, down from the current 8.5 to 9 billion people we’re supporting now.
There is some buffer inside there in terms of roughly 30% of food being wasted. But the extent to which we rely upon a continuous flow of petroleum-based fertilisers cannot be overestimated.
And if we have a disruption to the supply of those fertilisers, anywhere from 10 or 20 million people through to the ludicrous scale, I have to admit, of 2 billion, that’s the potential range of disaster.’
— on Going Underground
posted by Satish Sharma at
13:10
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