President Trump is being led like a fattened pig to the slaughter by his inner circle.
https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2064700016036593710
President Trump is being led like a fattened pig to the slaughter by his inner circle.
It has now been 63 days since the US/Iran ceasefire took place on April 8th. 63 days that the United States has been bleeding leverage.
Under the original ceasefire agreement it was understood that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz... They didn't.
But what did the United States do about that? NOTHING!
Why? Because they CAN'T!
Throughout these 63 days, one fact is undeniably true: Iran has gotten stronger, and the United States has gotten weaker in comparison to their pre-ceasefire positions.
Over the past two months, Iran has been able to rebuild, resupply, reposition, and reinforce their defenses. The United States on the other hand, has spent the last two months watching 13M barrels of oil per day not reach the global market. 20% of the global fertilizer supply not reach market. Desperately needed plastics and medical supplies, gone.
If President Trump HAD a good solution to defeat Iran militarily and reopen the Strait of Hormuz... he wouldn't have sat idly by for 63 days why he, and the United States, got embarrassed on the world stage.
Iran has overwhelming escalation dominance in comparison to the US. They can cut undersea cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. They can launch drones and missiles at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to take another 10% of the global oil market offline. They can strike Gulf energy infrastructure in a way that would turn the looming global economic recession into a depression. They can strike at the roughly 1,600 vessels that are still trapped in the Strait of Hormuz...
Iran has us completely and totally cornered. That was true on April 8th, and that is true today.
If President Trump moves forward with a full resumption of the war, here is EXACTLY what will be the end result:
The Iranian people - the ordinary, innocent, and helpless person - will be only further devastated. More damage will be done to their economy. To their wellbeing. To their safety. Prosperity.
Iran will devastate the global economy with retaliatory strikes that dwarf the shock impact of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be seen as an enemy of the Gulf countries due to their reckless decision to expose them to further Iranian retaliatory strikes.
... And then?
We'll end up right back in this same spot. Two months from now. Everything worse, nothing better.
If President Trump HAD a military solution. If he HAD a viable avenue to achieve victory against Iran... He would've used it by now.
Trump is trapped, and restarting the war will only make everything worse.
posted by Satish Sharma at
15:42
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