SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: The new situation in the Strait of Hormuz will also cause a significant shift in relative power and influence, both regionally and globally. In the region, the United States has shown itself to be a paper tiger,

https://x.com/IzadiFoad/status/2054859015205671215

فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

Translated from Persian

After the death of Henry Kissinger, the author of the following article is known in America as the contemporary Henry Kissinger. Key points from Robert Kagan's recent article in The Atlantic:

1- Iran will not only be able to demand tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but it can also restrict passage. If a country behaves in a way that Iran's rulers dislike, they can punish that country simply by slowing down—or even threatening to slow down—the flow of that country's cargo ships.

2- The leverage of the Strait of Hormuz allows Tehran's leaders to force countries to lift sanctions and normalize relations, or else face punishment in the Strait of Hormuz.

3- The new situation in the Strait of Hormuz will also cause a significant shift in relative power and influence, both regionally and globally. In the region, the United States has shown itself to be a paper tiger, and the Gulf states and other Arab countries have no choice but to accept Iran's power. The economies of the Gulf Arab countries were built under the umbrella of American hegemony. If you take that power—and the freedom of navigation that comes with it—away from them, the Gulf countries will have no choice but to beg Tehran.

4- The rest of the countries that depend on Gulf energy will also have to adjust their relations with Iran. And what real choice will they have? If the United States, with its powerful navy, cannot or will not open the Strait of Hormuz, no coalition of forces with a fraction of America's capability will be able to do so either.

5- The British and French initiative to monitor the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire is also a bit like a joke. Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, has clearly stated that this "coalition" will only operate in the Strait under peaceful conditions: meaning it will escort ships, but only if they don't need an escort.

6- With control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will emerge as a key regional player and one of the key players in the world. The role of China and Russia, as Iran's allies, will be strengthened, and the role of the United States will be significantly diminished.

7- In the event of another U.S. attack, just a few successful Iranian strikes could paralyze the region's oil and gas infrastructure for years, if not decades, dragging the world and the United States into a prolonged economic crisis.

8- Iran will have control of the Strait of Hormuz. The common assumption that the Strait will somehow reopen after the crisis ends is baseless. Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante. Some talk of the gap between hardliners and moderates in Tehran, but even the moderates understand that Iran cannot let go of the Strait, even if they think they can strike a good deal with Trump. They know Trump is not a reliable person.

9- They also know that the Israelis might attack again, because the Israelis never restrain themselves when their interests are threatened.

10- Of course, Israel will find itself more isolated than ever, as Iran becomes richer, more armed, and preserves its options for going nuclear in the future. Israel may even find itself unable to pursue Iran's proxies: in a world where Iran has leverage over the energy supply of many countries, Israel could face enormous international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else.

11- In recent days, reports indicate that Trump has asked the U.S. intelligence community to assess the consequences of declaring victory and withdrawing from the war. One can't blame him. The hope for regime collapse, especially when the regime has survived repeated military and economic blows, is not much of a strategy. Trump doesn't have much time to wait, as oil prices will rise to $150 or even $200 per barrel, inflation will spike, and global shortages of food and other goods will begin. He needs a faster solution. Those who want Trump to "finish the job" aren't paying attention to the costs.

https://theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/

Implications for Iran:
1- The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed for at least another two months.
2- After limited reopening, serious tolls must not be forgotten—at least 10 percent of the ship's cargo value.
3- Alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz must be the top priority targets for Iran's missiles.