President Trump posted this about an hour ago. This makes it increasing unlikely the war w Iran gets settled diplomatically
https://x.com/DanielLDavis1/status/2050731750020530309
President Trump posted this about an hour ago. This makes it increasing unlikely the war w Iran gets settled diplomatically, meaning the most likely options now are:
1) Trump leaves the blockade in place for an extended pd of time in the hopes that deepening economic privation on Iran softens their demands later (and similarly hoping he can endure the rising price of oil, which is set to skyrocket in mere weeks);
or
2) a return to active combat operations, hoping to crush Iran’s will to resist “once and for all.”
Option #1 allows the President to kick the can down the road a little longer while seeking some other exit ramp (none are presently apparent), but will not stop the building pressure from the daily loss of about 12mbd from global markets or the 35% of fertilizers, aluminum, and helium in desperate need around the world; it increases the chance we go from mere recession to depression.
Option #2 makes all the war hawks happy (at first) as well as Netanyahu. But after another big “shock & awe” splashy opening round, reality will set in as fast as an Iranian missile flies into the teeth of GCC oil production facilities throughout the gulf, and oil could quickly spike to $200.
But this time the rise will b owing to a physical constraint, not a political decision, and we virtually guarantee a global depression from which we can’t print enough money to escape.
Adding great insult to serious injury, the resumption of military operations still leaves Iran in control of the SOH, reprocessed nuke materials, long range missile capacity, its fast boat navy, and proxy backing.
In other words, trying Option #2 likely fails militarily; diplomatically, and economically.
By our choice.
posted by Satish Sharma at
07:02
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