Iran: China walks on eggshells, but will not yield to Trump
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2054203139264221253
Iran: China walks on eggshells, but will not yield to Trump
President Trump arrives in China tomorrow and is expected to lay a massive deck of cards on the table for Xi Jinping, provided Beijing cooperates on Iran. But… not everything is a bed of roses.
Trump is trying to convince Xi that Iran is now a toxic asset, threatening China’s ties with Arab countries and Western trade. But after what happened in Venezuela, Beijing is wary of cooperating with the U.S. regarding Iran.
They fear Washington wants to undermine their energy security. Even with Taiwan as a potential bargaining chip, I doubt the Chinese will sell out the Iranians.
Trump’s decision to impose sanctions on China right before his visit did not go down well. Unlike in the past, he has begun severely punishing Chinese banks and independent refineries that process Iranian oil. Instead of being intimidated, Beijing hit back hard. For the first time, China formally invoked its 2021 anti-foreign-sanctions legislation.
The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued an order prohibiting Chinese companies and citizens from recognizing, enforcing, or complying with U.S. sanctions against the five refineries named by Trump, including the giant Hengli Petrochemical.
The Chinese went even further than just tariff threats: they preemptively blocked Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of the AI startup Manus, signaling that American investments can be barred in retaliation.
Chinese regulators also instructed state-owned banks to reduce their purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Trump is arriving in China with the posture of someone who imposed sanctions, issued threats, and now has something to negotiate. But all his shots have backfired.
His position is delicate, because he will make demands that are unlikely to be met.
Trump is expected to demand that China reduce or halt its purchases of Iranian oil.
Today, Beijing is the main buyer, processing nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports through independent refineries that operate outside the Western financial system. Washington’s goal is to financially isolate the Iranian regime and force it to accept a new peace deal, which, in practice, would mean Iran’s virtual surrender.
Recently, Trump claimed that Xi Jinping had agreed not to supply weapons to Iran. At the summit, he will seek formal guarantees against the export of dual-use goods and military components.
What I sincerely believe is happening here has more to do with China’s relations with the Gulf countries. Far from canceling its ties with Iran, Beijing will certainly try to set up a dialogue group involving Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Despite its good relations with the UAE, the links to Israel and the West, plus its disagreements with the Saudis and Qataris, keep it politically distant from the Chinese geopolitical interests, although this does not affect commercial ties.
Full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p
posted by Satish Sharma at
02:20
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