Even if Trump and Xi de-escalate on May 14, S&P says the energy crisis lasts another seven months at minimum.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2051836044300161458
BREAKING. S&P Global Energy published research on Tuesday May 5 2026 stating that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take seven months minimum to fully restore upstream production, with the energy crisis potentially stretching into 2027.
The market is not pricing this.
Brent futures are pricing political resolution at the May 14 Trump-Xi summit. Physical cargoes are pricing the customs enforcement architecture. Both are pricing the war. Neither is pricing the aftermath.
The Strait reopening is not the end of the crisis. The Strait reopening is the moment the second phase begins.
Output at Iranian fields and export flows from Iraqi and lower Gulf fields have been disrupted for sixty-six days. Refinery turnaround schedules across Asia are now misaligned. Insurance markets have repriced. Shadow fleet logistics have been substantially degraded by US Treasury sanctions. None of this rebuilds in days.
The political clock measures the distance to summit. The architectural clock measures the distance to functional supply restoration. The two clocks are not the same clock.
Even if Trump and Xi de-escalate on May 14, S&P says the energy crisis lasts another seven months at minimum.
The peace itself has a seven-month tail.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans
posted by Satish Sharma at
13:13
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