Will America Succeed in Imposing a Naval Blockade on Iran?

 https://x.com/sameh_asker/status/2049572857382937004

سامح عسكر

@sameh_asker

Translated from Arabic

Will America Succeed in Imposing a Naval Blockade on Iran? This is like saying we're blockading a major city (with a stick or a stone). Practically speaking, there are numerous obstacles standing in the way of this blockade's success. First: The very nature of the Trump regime itself—its propagandistic, demagogic character—meaning a man who loves leadership, speeches, and slogans, slathered in propaganda and showmanship... This widens the gap between practical reality and wishes, desires, and personal beliefs... In other words, the Trump regime doesn't read war correctly... and that's the secret to its failures so far. Second: #Iran's coastline stretches 2,800 km... This would require it to enforce the blockade with 1,000 to 2,000 warships. How many U.S. ships are there? ...Only about 15... Chinese oil tankers crossed the strait after Trump announced the blockade and broadcast their signals publicly, paid the fees to Iran, and passed through without U.S. interference—and the same goes for Iranian ships and other tankers that passed without foreign intervention... This means the blockade strategy only exists on television and Trump's Truth Social account... Third: The aircraft carrier Lincoln is positioned very far away in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, maneuvering to maintain a 1,000 km distance from Iran's coasts out of fear of being targeted—and this reduces its effectiveness while increasing the risk levels tied to its operations and movements... Fourth: The aircraft carriers George Bush and Ford... They're scared to pass through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab for fear of being targeted by #Yemen, so they're taking extremely long detours through the Mediterranean or around the Cape of Good Hope... If you're afraid of getting hit by Yemen—which is less armed—then how will you impose a blockade on Iran, which is more heavily armed..??! Fifth: If the United States threatens Chinese tankers, the Chinese navy will send a force, leading to a potential direct confrontation between the two navies in the Gulf of Oman. So the blockade here isn't just on Iran—it's indirectly a blockade on China too (since China relies on Gulf oil). Escalation that Trump doesn't want right now, and that American military leaders fear, given how close we are to a Chinese-American clash they're not prepared for at the moment... Unless they settle things with Indonesia first to use the Malacca Strait as leverage against China—and the Indonesians won't obey America out of fear of China and for their current interests with them in BRICS... Sixth: Iranian oil flows to China via alternative railway lines that bypass the sanctions, but in smaller quantities than sea transport, making the idea of a total blockade's success implausible... Seventh: Iran practically controls the strait, where it can now block hostile ships like American or Israeli ones—but the reverse isn't true... America can't block all Iranian ships... That would require massive firepower and an enormous fleet (which isn't available). Eighth: Iran has also confined passage through Hormuz near its shores to an extremely narrow strip just two miles wide, planted mines in the rest of the strait connected to the opposite shore, and on top of that, nature has favored it by making the narrow strip along its coast the most prepared and suitable for accommodating large ships... Which isn't the case for the rest of the strait... This has made controlling the strait and collecting fees easier for the Iranians right now, and they do it in multiple ways, including ships heading to Sharjah port and departing from there—perhaps as part of an understanding with Sharjah's leaders and the Iranian authorities... In short: The blockade is media propaganda... But it's not executable, and the capacity to execute it is minimal and costly too—it could push things toward a wide-scale naval military confrontation that Iran is currently threatening, or a U.S.-Chinese naval clash in the Gulf of Oman. Your thoughts?

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5:33 AM · Apr 30, 2026

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