SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: this 5-point document isn't just a peace plan - it's the first sketch of a post-American Persian Gulf.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2039186843833598185

The most interesting part of the China-Pakistan 5-point initiative to end the war on Iran is arguably what it says about Hormuz. First of all, it calls for "allow[ing] the early and safe passage of civilian and commercial ships," which means that military vessels are deliberately excluded. For a waterway where the US Navy has operated as if by divine right for decades - the famous "freedom of navigation" principle - this is pretty meaningful: this framework effectively writes the US Navy out of the picture. Secondly it calls to "restore normal passage" in Hormuz which seems to be ambiguous by design: what does "normal" mean? It doesn't say "free and unimpeded passage" or "going back to status quo ante": "normal" could include, say, some form of toll fee in Hormuz as Iran has suggested they want to put in place. This could be the new "normal". What this sounds like to me is a rebuke of Iran's position that Hormuz be only open to passage by "friendly" nations, but they're open to Iran having a formalized sovereign role over the strait - potentially including some form of regulated transit or toll. In essence, what China and Pakistan are gesturing toward is neither the American "freedom of navigation" status quo ante nor Iran's wartime blockade, but a third option: a Suez-like Hormuz paradigm where Iran's sovereignty over it is acknowledged but passage is open to all commercial traffic, for a fee. If that's the direction of travel, this 5-point document isn't just a peace plan - it's the first sketch of a post-American Persian Gulf. Plenty of people have already called this war America's Suez moment: a toll-operated Hormuz under Iranian sovereignty would make that comparison pretty literal.

2:43 PM · Apr 1, 2026