SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Operation Epic Fury, which was supposed to “destroy an entire civilization in one night,” is ending with the U.S. paying $20 billion,

https://x.com/DenShtilierman/status/2047321247839625231

Denys Shtilierman

Translated from Ukrainian

In Washington, one of the biggest political catastrophes of the Trump administration is unfolding. And to grasp its scale, you need to compare two figures.

$1.7 billion—the amount Obama paid to Iran in 2016. For 10 years, Trump called it “green cash,” “treason,” “ransom to terrorists,” and one of the worst mistakes in U.S. history. 19 days ago, on April 1, 2026, he repeated this rhetoric in a formal address to the nation.

$20 billion—the amount Trump is now prepared to unfreeze for Iran as part of negotiations to end the war. Nearly 12 times more than the sum he once called treason. According to Axios, the deal covers Iranian assets in South Korea, Iraq, and Europe. In exchange, Iran will transfer its stockpile of enriched uranium—about 2,000 kg at 60% enrichment—to a third country for processing or storage.

For all my extremely negative attitude toward Obama, the 2016 negotiations and payment were led by professional State Department lawyers—civil servants with mandatory financial disclosures and bound by conflict-of-interest rules. It was a settlement of an international arbitration case that had dragged on since 1979: the U.S. owed Iran for undelivered weapons from the shah’s era, and the Treasury assessed that America would lose the case anyway, with even higher interest.

But the key figure in these current negotiations? Jared Kushner. Trump’s son-in-law. A man whose private investment fund received billions from the Saudi Public Investment Fund and from the UAE. In other words, a deal that reshapes the economic architecture of the Middle East is being led by someone whose private investors are players in precisely that system. Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee have already opened an investigation into the conflict of interest.

On March 6, 2026, Trump stated publicly: “There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.” So what’s on the table now? Iran isn’t surrendering. Iran is getting money. Enriched uranium isn’t being destroyed—it’s being relocated. The enrichment program isn’t being dismantled—it’s being paused temporarily. $20 billion isn’t a “tax on the defeated side.” It’s the return of Iranian money that the U.S. itself froze as leverage. The money is flowing from Washington to Tehran.

This isn’t Iran’s surrender. It’s an agreed ceasefire with financial terms favoring Tehran.

In 2016, Trump’s closest Senate allies—Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Mark Kirk—year after year called the $1.7 billion “ransom,” “appeasement,” “opening the road to war.” They’re all still in the Senate. They all have to explain tomorrow why $20 billion isn’t the same thing. Graham has already publicly called on Congress to launch a review of the negotiations—using the exact same methods he demanded of Obama in 2015.

It seems Iran is playing this game far more shrewdly than the media shows. Iran’s President Pezeshkian is warning internally that the economy will collapse in 3-4 weeks without a ceasefire. The IRGC wants to preserve the regime and keep fighting. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the previous one, killed in the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury on February 28), is trying to balance—he approved the ceasefire while simultaneously vowing revenge. Both statements remain in effect.

CNN has already reported that Iran is demanding more than $20 billion. Because they’ve sensed the key thing: Trump needs this deal right now more than Iran does. So the price will go up.

This is yet another lesson about U.S. guarantees. 19 days between a formal address to the nation where Trump called $1.7 billion “treason,” and an offer to hand $20 billion to the same “terrorist state.” 19 days. If anyone in Europe is still hoping that America will honor some deal on Ukraine—this person is living in a world that hasn’t existed for a long time. We need to stop counting on American guarantees in any format. Our security is our army, our defense industry, our drones and missiles.

Operation Epic Fury, which was supposed to “destroy an entire civilization in one night,” is ending with the U.S. paying $20 billion, Iran retaining its enriched uranium, the ayatollahs’ regime staying in power, the nuclear program undismantled, and Trump declaring it a victory.