SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: "Let China send its ships to us. Send them to Venezuela. We have an abundance of oil. In fact, we'll sell it cheaper."

https://x.com/vvliiiv/status/2043468478972117376

الأحداث الإيرانية | عاجل

Translated from Arabic

Trump said he would stop Iranian ships. But 90% of these ships are headed to China. Trump issued a statement today: "We will stop every ship paying tribute to Iran in international waters." Everyone considered this a move against Iran. I asked a question: Where are these ships headed? Between 80 and 90% of Iran's oil is sold to China. Nearly all the ships he intends to stop are headed to China. Trump says it's Iran. But in reality, he's cutting off China's oil pipeline. No one is talking about this. Let's first look at what happened in Islamabad. Through Pakistani mediation, the United States and Iran sat at the negotiating table. Vance headed the American delegation. And they talked for hours. No agreement was reached. JD Vance said: "We've made our final and best offer," then left the table. Hours later, Trump made two statements. Both were highly aggressive. The first: "The U.S. Navy will impose a blockade on all ships entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz. We will enforce a full blockade. We will not allow Iran to sell oil to whomever it wants without consequence. It's all or nothing." The second: "Let China send its ships to us. Send them to Venezuela. We have an abundance of oil. In fact, we'll sell it cheaper." When we compare these two statements, the picture becomes clear. With the first, he's cutting off China's oil pipeline. And with the second, he's telling China: "Buy from me." So why would China buy from the United States? Currently, China buys oil from Iran in its local currency, the yuan. No dollars, no SWIFT system, no reliance on any system controlled by the United States. What would happen if it bought from the United States? It would have to use the dollar. That money would enter the American banking system, and transactions would go through the SWIFT system. The United States could cut off the funding whenever it wants, impose sanctions, and freeze accounts. Exactly as it did with Iran, and as it did with Russia. Trump doesn't want to sell oil; he wants to make China dependent on him. China understands that. It's not about oil; it's about control. And now, let's look at what Iran has established in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has created a toll system in the strait. The system assigns priority points from 1 to 5 to each country. First priority: Friendly countries, where passage is facilitated. Other countries undergo security checks, verification that they have no ties to Israel or the United States, and then fees are paid. The fees: One dollar per barrel, in yuan or digital currencies. After payment, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard issues a passage code. When the ship approaches the strait, it sends a radio code. A patrol boat receives it and escorts it until it crosses the strait. The Iranian parliament approved this system in March 2026. In fact, Japan, one of the United States' closest allies, used this system, paying Iran in yuan to ensure its ships' passage. And now, let's move to the central question: Can the United States really stop a Chinese ship? What does stopping and inspecting a Chinese commercial ship in international waters mean? China would consider this a commercial blockade, a violation of its sovereignty. And it won't stay silent. Potential Chinese responses: It would increase support for Iran, strengthen the yuan system in the Strait of Hormuz, possibly move its naval forces closer to the region, and accelerate the sale of U.S. bonds. So, stopping a Chinese ship doesn't solve the problem; it exacerbates it. What if the United States can't stop them? Then there would be a bigger problem. Trump said: "We will stop all the ships." The world is watching. Gulf countries are watching. Europe is watching. Taiwan is watching. Russia is watching. They're all wondering: Can America keep its promises? If Chinese ships continue to pass and the United States can't stop them, the answer will be clear to everyone. "It can't." Remember Ray Dalio's saying: "When great powers lose control over vital trade routes, security collapses. Allies abandon us. Capital flees." That's how it ended for Portugal. That's how it ended for the Netherlands. That's how it ended for Britain in Suez in 1956. There are two scenarios. Both are fraught with risk. First: The United States stops the Chinese ships. The blockade becomes reality. This could turn into a crisis more dangerous than a war with Iran. Because you're not facing Iran; you're facing China. Second: The United States can't touch the Chinese ships. The blockade remains ink on paper. An impression forms: "This country doesn't keep its promises." Allies may distance themselves. And the dollar may weaken. The first test is coming very soon. When a Chinese oil tanker heads toward the Strait of Hormuz, what will the U.S. Navy do? That moment will determine everything. This is my personal analysis. The next few days will be highly tense; I'll keep you updated on every development.

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9:17 AM · Apr 13, 2026