War On Iran – Oil Prices Lag Supply Deficit – Arab’s Won’t Fight Iran – Khamenei Son Succeeds Father
Iraq has shut down some oil wells. As have Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Qatar has also shut down is gas wells and the process ‘trains’ needed to liquefy natural gas.
All this because of the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz and because of potential missile and drone attacks on the fragile production installations.
While oil and LPG prices have increased the global markets have not yet recognized the length and severity of the supply crunch these shut downs will cause. Prices, currently in the high $90/bl, will need to get much higher ($150+/bl) to cause an equivalent demand destruction.
Even if the war on Iran would stop tomorrow and if the Strait would reopen immediately it would take many weeks until the supplies would be back to normal levels.
Oil wells, once shut down, often require rework to open them up again. The bore of an unused the well may close up, sediments may block the oil flow, valves start to fail. It means that drilling rigs will need to be setup at each of the wells with days of rework needed to re-establish its outflow. There are thousands of wells that have been shut down.
Qatar’s liquefaction of natural gas is a special problem as the process to create Liquefied Petroleum Gas is quite complex:
The first step on the onshore facilities is the separation of condensate from gas. The separated condensate is stabilised and sent to storage to await export. The natural gas then flows to the liquefaction trains for processing into LNG. During the first phase of this process, sulphur compounds, carbon dioxide, and water are removed in stages. The gas is then chilled using propane and mixed refrigeration processes.
The heavy hydrocarbons are separated out and fractionated into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and plant condensate. The cryogenic main heat exchanger in each train then cools the gas to approximately – 150 °C, liquefying it in the process. Finally, as the pressure is reduced to almost zero, the temperature decreases to – 162 °C, nitrogen is removed and LNG is transferred to one of the storage tanks prior to being loaded into a LNG vessel.
When a liquefaction train shuts down all the product in it will have to be removed. The whole cryogenic chain, once stopped, will warm up and will need to be cooled down again to its very low working temperatures. The metal structures involved do not react well, to say it mildly, to warming up and cooling down cycles. Failures will occur. Repairs will be needed.
It will take at least two months to revive the Qatari process trains. This of course only after the war has ended. Some 20% of the global LPG supply will thus be unavailable for a lengthy period of time.
The Arab Gulf states are miffed that Iran is targeting their countries. But it is them who allow the U.S. to use their sovereign space to attack Iran. Empty ATAMCS containers were found in the desert of Kuwait and Bahrain. The missiles were used by U.S. troops using HIMARS launchers to fire towards Iran. A recent failure by a U.S. bomber pilot to shut off his air transponder showed that Saudi airspace was used to refuel U.S. bombers for attacks in Iran.
The Gulf Arabs had recently sent a delegation to Russia to ask for support against Iran. Foreign Minister Lavrov ridiculed them for not condemning the U.S. attack on Iran and for their continued collaboration with U.S. forces.
The U.S. is pushing the Gulf Arabs to join its war on Iran. But officials in those countries are not as dumb as the U.S. might believe.
Former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassin (machine translation):
America will withdraw from the battle as soon as we declare war on Iran, turning into an arms dealer selling to both sides. It will deplete our resources to bring down both sides; once both sides fall, it will be easy to achieve the ‘Greater Israel’ project. Our interest requires non-participation and letting them fight among themselves.
UAE billionaire Kalaf Al Habtoor (tweet now deleted) (machine translation):
I heard the statements of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, in which he calls on the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to enter this war, saying that we are also under attack and that we must join the fight. And I say to him clearly: We know full well why we are under attack, and we also know who dragged the entire region into this dangerous escalation without consulting those he calls his “allies” in the region.
…
We do not deny the Iranian threat to the region, which has become clear in recent days. We do not trust Iran. But this is a dirty game in which several powers clash at the expense of our region, with no honor in it and no transparency. In this scene, Iran, Israel, and the United States all move according to their own interests, not according to the interests of the peoples of the Middle Eastern Arab countries.And for this reason, we say it clearly: We will not enter this war to serve the interests of others, nor will we sacrifice our sons in a conflict that could have been avoided through diplomacy and political solutions.
…
And the clearest thing of all is what Senator Graham himself said when he spoke about oil. He stated that Iran and Venezuela together hold 31% of global oil reserves, and that the United States could establish a partnership with this share of the world’s oil, and that it would be a “nightmare for China”—he even added that if the regime in Iran changes, there would be a “new Middle East,” and the United States would “make a lot of money.”Only then does the picture become clear. And only then do we understand why they want this war.
Lindsay Graham’s talk on Fox News on Sunday is here. Aljazeerah provides a write up of it.)
The U.S. has ordered diplomatic staff to leave Saudi Arabia. During the last 24 hours U.S. tanker planes, which had been operating from Saudi airstrips, have left the country:
The decision to disperse KC-135 aerial refueling tankers from Prince Sultan Air Base follows a sustained Iranian missile and drone campaign targeting U.S.-linked military infrastructure across the Gulf, exposing the operational vulnerability of centralized logistics nodes that are essential to American airpower projection.
My hunch is that the Saudis, in no uncertain terms, asked the U.S. to leave.
Lindsey Graham @LindseyGrahamSC – 15:38 UTC · Mar 9, 2026
The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
It is my understanding the Kingdom refuses to use their capable military as a part of an effort to end the barbaric and terrorist Iranian regime who has terrorized the region and killed 7 Americans.
Question – why should America do a defense agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest?
…
Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.
Iran and Hizbullah continue to hit targets in Israel. Several recent videos showed missile impacts without prior warning. The Israeli early warning and missile defense system seems to be damaged.
Israel has called up reservists and is preparing a heavy division for another invasion of Lebanon. Hizbullah is ready to welcome it.
The Assembly of Experts of Iran has voted for Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the martyred Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to take up his fathers job. Throughout the last decade Mojtaba had been the unofficial chief of office for Ali Khamenei. He is thus knowledgeable of the details required for the position. Western media describe Mojtaba Khamenei as a ‘hardliner’ with little to back up that qualification.
It is unlikely that Mojtaba would have been elected if Al Khamenei had died a natural death. His election demonstrates continuity and defiance.
As someone snarked:
It took the U.S. 20 years to replace the Taliban with the Taliban, but only 9 days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei
posted by Satish Sharma at
05:01
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