SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: . What will Iran do if it were struck? This time, Iran sees any attack as existential. It has to either resist the US-Israel combine with full force or go down.

https://x.com/johnstanly/status/2025629399887094049

Stanly Johny

Over the past two days, I talked to a diplomatic source, a journalist and a security analyst in Tehran. These are the takeaways. 1. The state appears to be holding firm despite the internal strains and external threats. The rebellion has been crushed--most casualties were in the northwestern and the southern border provinces. There is no defection at the top levels. There is no Delcy. The chain of command remains intact. Three figures have emerged as the main power centres--Larijani, Shamkhani and Ghalibaf--while Pezeshkian has been effectively sidelined. "He is the right man in the right place but at the wrong time," one of them told me. 2. Pezehskian, Araghchi and the reform bloc pushes for a compromise deal to avert war and secure some sanctions relief. "The leader doesn't prefer this," the diplomat said. Still, they want to exhaust diplomatic options so the state can close ranks across factions of the elite if war breaks out. But both reformists and conservatives have drawn a firm line on the missile programme. Reformists argue concessions can be made on enrichment (including shipping out 60% enriched uranium) if the US is prepared to lift at least some sanctions. But even they are unwilling to negotiate over the missile programme. 3. Iran knows the scope for a compromise is very thin. "Even if we make a deal on the nuclear programme, Israel would still call us a threat. If we abandon the missiles to avoid U.S. strikes today, Israel will attack us anyway, maybe in a few months. So why should we surrender our missiles," said the think tanker. Trump has boxed himself in. He probably thought that Iran would capitulate under pressure. But what he is asking for is Iran's disarmament. Having built up a significant military presence in the region, he can't easily step back without extracting major concessions. "But we can't give him what he asks for," said the analyst. This means the possibility for a conflict is very high. 4. What will Iran do if it were struck? This time, Iran sees any attack as existential. It has to either resist the US-Israel combine with full force or go down. If they accept a limited strike, there would be another attack a few months down the line. "It's a different kind of mowing the lawn strategy." If the state survives the initial blow, which they believe is likely, Iran would strike Israel and US bases in the region, one of them said. Within Iran, hardliners still argue that accepting Trump's ceasefire in June was a mistake. They think they were becoming more effective in striking Israel with fewer missiles when the war progressed. And this time, they are ready to fight a long war. "The leader has given clear instructions that the survival of the republic is paramount."

4:50 AM · Feb 23, 2026