Trump's fundamental misread of Iran is that he believed that the theocratic leadership would fear all the US aircraft carriers and their firepower, and as a result, opt to surrender.

 https://x.com/tparsi/status/2027556603738619907

@tparsi

Trump's fundamental misread of Iran is that he believed that the theocratic leadership would fear all the US aircraft carriers and their firepower, and as a result, opt to surrender. It's the opposite: They fear surrender far more than they fear war. They calculate that they can survive war (particularly if there are no US troops on the ground), whereas surrender would obliterate their remaining support base within Iran. That constituency has shrunk significantly over the years, and as a result, the remaining supporters - who tend to be more radical and hardline - have become all the more important to the regime's survival. They cannot afford to lose them. If they surrender, they will lose them. If there is war, they keep them, and they believe they will keep their power as well, even though the country will suffer in an unprecedented way. Trump never understood this and thought that the more assets he brought to the region, while offering Tehran virtually nothing at the negotiating table, the greater the likelihood of Tehran's capitulation. In reality, he only increased the risk of a war he repeatedly said he wanted to avoid.

12:28 PM · Feb 28, 2026

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