A genocide that is still unfolding with numbers getting higher every day.
The new study in the Lancet is by far the most rigorous and serious done yet into the number of casualties in Gaza. Here is why it gives you the best indication of the real numbers:
1) It used face-to-face interviews with 2,000 households and achieved a 97.2% response rate, providing a "rare validation" of official figures while accounting for underreporting due to hospital collapses.
2) The study used a stratified cluster sampling approach, surveying 2,000 households and nearly 10,000 individuals. This is considered a gold standard for estimating mortality when official administrative records are compromised.
3) It is the first major study conducted independently of the local authorities in Gaza. By verifying deaths through 2,000 randomly selected families, it provided a "rigorous bedrock" that validated the demographic trends (like the percentage of women and children killed) reported by the Ministry of Health.
4) It is unique in providing a confirmed "floor" for violent deaths (75,200) while simultaneously quantifying non-violent excess deaths (8,540) caused by the collapse of medical and food systems.
5) The study's estimate of a ~35% undercount aligns with a previous independent "capture-recapture" model published in early 2025. This methodological convergence gives experts higher confidence in the 75,000+ figure.
That means we need to take these figures very seriously. What they show is that there were 75,200 violent deaths between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025 alone.
Roughly 56% of those killed (42,200 people) were women, children, or elderly individuals. Projected forward, the discrepancy between these numbers and the Ministry of Health Numbers would suggest well over 100,000 violent deaths. The number of indirect deaths would be well over 200,000.
A genocide that is still unfolding with numbers getting higher every day.
posted by Satish Sharma at
04:36
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