Japan’s current geopolitical dilemma can be summed up in one sentence: the decline of your patron is far more lethal than the rise of your rival.
https://x.com/OopsGuess/status/1994899871657242647
Japan’s current geopolitical dilemma can be summed up in one sentence:
the decline of your patron is far more lethal than the rise of your rival.
For decades, the United States allowed Japan to believe it was the “core asset of the First Island Chain.”
But reality, as Reuters bluntly put it is this:
To Washington, Japan is not the goal. It’s a tool. A bargaining chip.
This truth was written all over the awkward scene between Trump and Takaichi:
America cares about U.S.–China relations;
Japan cares about whether it can continue to survive between them.
And here lies the real danger:
China’s rise is structural.
America’s decline is structural.
Japan’s gamble is fantasy.
Japan clings to the belief that:
“As long as we behave, obey, and oppose China loudly enough, America will protect us forever.”
But the way the U.S. abandoned Afghanistan shows everything:
When America withdraws, it does not ask whether you’re an old lover or a new one.
It calculates cost. Only cost.
What is Japan without the United States?
— A country without a real army.
— A country constrained by a constitution written by foreigners.
— A country whose economic lifeline sits between Washington and Beijing.
— A country without an independent coordinate in global politics.
In other words:
Japan’s ‘tough posture’ is nothing more than borrowed courage.
And when the lender weakens, borrowed courage evaporates.
The irony is this: Japan fears not China’s strength, but the fact that the future of Asia will no longer orbit around Japan, nor even around the United States, but around China.
That’s why Japan is so agitated today:
It is not “defending security”;
it is resisting the century.
So the current reality is:
Japan is betting that America will shield it.
But the real question is:
If the U.S. decides to pull back, what does Japan have to speak to the world with?
History? None.
Military power? None.
Resources? None.
Sovereignty? Not even that.
Japan’s deepest fear is the one it refuses to name:
The U.S. cannot protect Japan forever, and China’s rise cannot be stopped.
And the truth Japan fears most is this:
Between its past and the coming future, it has run out of exits,
yet it’s still trying to soothe itself with fantasies from the wartime era.
The world has changed.
Japan hasn’t.
posted by Satish Sharma at
06:40
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