Iran-Israel Comparisons for 2024:

 https://x.com/SahilV_Shah/status/1938600294830486009

Sahil V. Shah

@SahilV_Shah

As Iran plans to cut its cooperation with the

@IAEAorg

in response to recent illegal US and Israeli military attacks on its nuclear facilities, it is important to recognize that a bulk of the Agency's access to Iran has always been through their 1974 Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA). It is unclear whether or not Iran will formally begin proceedings to withdraw from the NPT. My personal opinion is that Iran will not withdraw if a viable diplomatic way forward is identified within the next 2-3 weeks that is also able to stave off E3 snapback of UN sanctions. However, under the bill that was passed by the Iranian Majles and approved by the Guardian Council in recent days, Iran's CSA with the IAEA will effectively be put on ice from now. In turn, we can expect to see the expulsion of the four IAEA inspectors currently within the country. Comparisons have been made to the 2020 Majles bill which was sparked by the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. The previous bill expanded nuclear activities and curtailed remaining voluntary transparency measures under the JCPOA, or Obama nuclear deal, including the suspension of Iran's provisional application of the Additional Protocol which it was due to eventually ratify under the JCPOA. It purposefully set out the staged, remedial, and reversible that Iran would pursue in advance, leaving breathing room for diplomacy with other JCPOA partners and the IAEA. However, that bill did not touch anything part of the CSA. So, what do we stand to lose? Here is the 2024 Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR) data from the Agency for what they were able to accomplish under the CSA alone last year. I am sharing this to highlight how robust the IAEA's effort has continued to be in Iran under the CSA despite the JCPOA effectively being dead and the AP being left to the wayside as a result. For further transparency and comparison, I am also sharing the data on Israel. Iran-Israel Comparisons for 2024: Facilities under safeguards Iran: 21 Israel: 1 Total number of inspections Iran: 493 Israel: 2 Number of Design Information Verifications (DIVs) Iran: 144 Israel: 1 Number of person-days of inspection (PDIs) Iran: 1260 Israel: 4 Number of Calendar-days in the field for verification (CDFVs) Iran: 2345 Israel: 8 Number of Inventory Change Report (ICR) reporting units received Iran: 7984 Israel: 30 Number of Physical Inventory Listing (PIL) reporting units received Iran: 28 Israel: 2 Number of Material Balance Report (MBR) reporting units received Iran: 28 Israel: 2

12:08 AM · Jun 28, 2025

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https://x.com/SahilV_Shah/status/1938600294830486009