Syria’s Fragmentation and the New Sykes-Picot: Geopolitical Chaos and Regional Realignments

 

Seth Ferris, January 10, 2025

The deliberate fragmentation of Syria along ethnic and religious lines, fueled by external powers and the rebranding of terrorist groups, underscores the geopolitical maneuvers shaping the nation’s chaotic future.

Does anyone, especially the international community, really think a terrorist organization can change itself overnight and mend its ways?

But what escapes attention is just how much of this “Mayhem” is deliberately engineered to bring about the total division of Syria into regions divided along ancient ethnic and religious lines, and split by hatred for the benefit of countries like Turkey and Israel and their international networks of patronage?

For the U.S., Assad’s fall allows them to claim a partial victory, shifting focus from Ukraine and toward Iran

The west is trying to label HTS*, and its leader Jolani, as “diversity friendly”, and rush to remove the rebranded al-Qaida* group from lists of terrorist organizations, with even the US announcing that they will be removing the US$ 10,000,000 bounty from the terrorist’s, oops I mean agent of democratic change  head, all in order to supposedly try and do a deal with the leader (and Zelensky clone), with Barbara Leaf, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs expounding on the fact that “positive messages” have been received about minority and women’s rights, and it was a “policy decision” that “aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS*,” adding that it would be “a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy’s head” while sitting down for discussions on regional interests.

Like they haven’t already done the deal. If you believe any of this, I have a nice bridge to sell you….. Others are calling him a CIA agent; however, the jury is still out on that, let see how well he carries out his various tasks.

As Syria faces a new future, every eye is on Al-Jolani or Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa. With his murky past and sudden transformation, propelled by CNN and BBC interviews, Al-Jolani has rebranded himself as a changed leader. But what lies behind this PR campaign could reveal the real dynamics at play in Syria, and what’s next for the country’s future.

Some of the purported promises he has made relate to respecting the Christian Community, and their right to worship. He also looks good in a suit with tie; however, likely nothing has changed in his character or dark soul.

Meanwhile, rather unsurprisingly, Syrian Christian clergy are forbidden from publicly appearing in their traditional attire in places securely under HTS* control, such as Idlib province, and Christian symbols, especially the cross, have been removed from Churches.

Diversity, tolerance….

And, rather unsurprisingly, to be expected: the terrorist network that he commands continues to show its true face.

The burning of a Christmas tree in the majority Christian town of Suqaylabiyah, near the city of Hama, has caused outrage amongst the Christian minority in Syria, with Syrian Christians protesting in a number of Christian majority areas, including parts of the capital Damascus. Needless to say, Jolani and the HTS* claim that the attack was carried out by “foreign fighters” but this is simply a deliberate obscurification, as it is well known that the foreign fighters were instrumental to the HTS* campaign, and well integrated into their forces, much like the foreign “volunteers” in Ukraine.

As one protester put it, “Either we live in a country that respects our Christianity as we did before or open the door for us so that we can leave abroad”

Which is probably the entire plan, as has been the case in the Israeli occupied West Bank and Gaza, where the extremely negative attitude of the IDF towards Palestinian Christians has seen a collapse in the Christian population over the last forty years.

But what of Syria’s other minorities, in particular the Alawites, Druze, and Kurds?

Not surprisingly, given that Assad was an Alawite, the religious and ethnic community has been the target of revenge attacks by the rebels, often regardless of their victims’ involvement in the government or otherwise. Certainly, some of those targeted were members of the government, or security and intelligence services, but the campaign of terror certainly contradicts Jolani’s claims to be wanting to create an inclusive state.

The Druze, meanwhile, appear to have aligned themselves with Israel, out for practical reasons. Israel has already taken a big chunk of Western Syria, including the entire Golan Heights (previously they only occupied a portion of the strategic feature) and the 1974 buffer zone, but has moved rapidly to close to a few kilometers from Damascus. This may be another target, which their extreme settler leadership already defines as “a Jewish city,” a view espoused by the reprehensible Smotrich, Israeli Finance Minister, who is on record as saying:

“It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus”, adding ominously “only Jerusalem, until Damascus”

Kurdish Question

And then we have the Kurds, the bastard children of the region, and most hated by the Turks, who were previously the main winners of the Syrian civil war, having carved out a “self-governing” enclave (with considerable American help, naturally) that controlled over 25% of the country.

Now, with the sudden flipping of the table by HTS* and the spectacular collapse of secularist Baathist forces and the capture of Damascus by the Turkey aligned “Diversity Jihadists” the writing may well be on the wall for the Kurds and their dreams of statehood or any semblance of self-determination.

It is no secret that Erdoğan harbors a visceral hatred for the Kurds in Syria, claiming that they are directly supporting Kurdish nationalists (terrorists) such as the PKK and YPG in Turkey. There have been numerous cross border operations by the Turks against the PKK, YPG, and the Syrian Kurdish forces of the SDF over the years.

It now it appears that Turkey is threatening to solve the problem “once and for all” and demanding that groups such as the PKK and YPG lay down their arms and leave Syria. It is doubtful if anyone will come to their rescue, and they may share the same fate as the Palestinians, however, at the clean hands of a NATO member.

A Turkish backed offensive by the SNA took large parts of Manbij, a strategic town in Northern Syria, causing the US to negotiate a ceasefire that resulted in their SDF allies being forced to withdraw from the town. A recent Kurdish counteroffensive seems to have gained some ground, but the strategic town remains firmly under the control of Turkey’s proxies for now.

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan said, regarding the SDF

“It has turned the region into a cauldron of terror with PKK members and far-left groups who have come from Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Europe”, Fidan said in a news conference after the meeting. “The international community is turning a blind eye to this lawlessness because of the wardenship it provides (against IS).”

Which seems a trifle hypocritical given Ankara’s support for Islamist terrorists, but oh well, what can we expect?

How does this all play out in the wider picture?

I suspect what we are seeing is a new Sykes-Picot agreement playing out. The United States, Israel, and Turkey have all staked their claims to large areas of Syria. Turkey’s Erdoğan has proposed annexation of a number of regions of Syria, in particular Aleppo, Idlib, Damascus and Raqqa. Needless to say, this will conflict with the Israeli claims to large areas including Damascus, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that, despite public claims to support the Palestinians, Erdoğan is, like many Arab leaders, a lapdog for Netanyahu despite the wishes and expectations of his people.

As the chaos spreads, I am reminded of the scene in the film Lawrence of Arabia, where he was talking with the two diplomats at the end of the film when Damascus fell, claiming not to have known anything about the secret Sykes Picot treaty. In the real life story behind it, the victors have been basking in their glory, but, as always, the shine is coming off very quickly, as the parties to the behind-the-scenes accord begin to, as always, turn on one another in their pursuit of power, resources, and the money that flows from both.

Iran and Russia’s relative inaction amid the collapse of Assad’s forces may be a strategic retreat. By withdrawing, Assad’s army could regroup and return once its enemies are weakened by infighting. Russia, meanwhile, has secured its key bases from HTS* and, by avoiding direct involvement in the latest ordeal in Syria, Russia can mainly focus on its primary goal in Ukraine, conserving resources for a rainy day.

Victory in Name Only!

For Iran, losing direct communication with Lebanon and Hezbollah is a setback, but a prolonged campaign in Syria would be risky. Iranian forces would be vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes far from home, with no air defense cover.

For the U.S., Assad’s fall allows them to claim a partial victory, shifting focus from Ukraine and toward Iran. Israel sees it as a distraction from the Gaza conflict and ongoing Genocide, and an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear sites without Syrian air defenses in the way. However, both the U.S. and Israel have not learned from earlier Iranian strikes on Israeli air bases that Iran has a well-designed and fully operational air defense network.

The chaos is set to spread, likely destabilizing Jordan and Egypt, making the Arab Spring seem mild in comparison.

*-banned in Russian Federation

 

Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs

https://journal-neo.su/2025/01/10/syrias-fragmentation-and-the-new-sykes-picot-geopolitical-chaos-and-regional-realignments/