PAPE: IRAN JUST GRABBED THE OIL ARTERY — NEXT STOP: THE GULF BANKS AND IRAN BECOMES A WORLD POWER.
https://x.com/Mark4XX/status/2099512494330958170
PAPE: IRAN JUST GRABBED THE OIL ARTERY — NEXT STOP: THE GULF BANKS AND IRAN BECOMES A WORLD POWER.
University of Chicago professor Robert Pape sat down on "At the Waters Edge" on September 13 and said the last three days were not noise. In his read, Iran just tightened a grip on the oil routes that feed the world — and the next move is not more missiles. It is politics over the governments that sit on hundreds of billions in U.S. Treasuries.
THE WEEKEND SHIFT
Pape says the Houthis now appear to control the Red Sea, and those three days are “shaking the world.”
He calls it pretty bad, and getting worse before it gets better.
The East-West pipeline that was supposed to bypass Hormuz has been hit and shut, he says, so there are no loadings at Yanbu.
That is not a side show. The host put it near 4% of global oil. Pape did not blink.
THE PLAN HE SAYS WAS ALREADY ON THE CALENDAR
On June 15 he mapped Iran’s “period of maximum leverage” as three buffers running down: the U.S. SPR, China’s extra buying, and the Houthis.
Starting July 20, after IRGC advisers landed in Sanaa, the Houthis began hitting Saudi tankers — not random ships.
Hormuz shipping was already being squeezed again. Then Iran-backed militias in Iraq hit the land pipe.
Pape’s line is blunt: this is a coherent, multi-prong offensive, not a weekend accident.
THE BYPASS THAT ARRIVED TOO LATE
Scott Bessent’s idea that Hormuz becomes “irrelevant in two years” because of new bypasses is, in Pape’s words, three months late and about $300 billion short.
“Right in front of our eyes they’re becoming a world power.”
He does not mean Turkey and Pakistan. He means a Persian Gulf core, then a “security resistance belt” from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf.
NO FLEET IS STEAMING IN
Europe, he says after Brussels, is not mustering for the Red Sea. It is staring at Ukraine, Russia, and a dark winter at home.
The U.S. Navy is tapped out in Hormuz. Japan, Britain, and France cannot magically reopen Bab el-Mandeb.
Flag officers talking B-2 carpet bombing miss the point he has taught for 30 years: air power without a ground or surface “anvil” just scatters the enemy. The Houthis will not sit in a kill box and wait.
THE PRICE PATH HE IS WATCHING
Oil has gone “straight up” since mid-July. Trump can talk. The tape is not listening.
Diesel, Pape says, is already at a historic U.S. high. Pump prices around $4.30–$4.45 a gallon jumped almost 20 cents in a week. He sees a path over $5, maybe $5.50 — with food riding diesel, not gasoline.
If SPR draws keep the current pace, his sketch has the reserve effectively gone by early April. That is his scenario, not a printed date.
WHAT HE SAYS COMES NEXT
The last three days, in his framing, already put a tight grip on “our artery of oil.”
The next six months are political: more influence over frontline Gulf capitals — because those central banks hold the Treasuries.
Regime-change logic, he says, is realism 101. If Washington treated it as fair game against Tehran, do not be shocked when Tehran treats Gulf governments the same way. He is describing a trajectory, not announcing a coup.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Pape’s warning is simple. The off-ramps are gone, the buffers are thinning, and the fight has moved from tankers to the map itself. First the oil artery. Then the governments that sit on the money.
Iran is not waiting for a better offer. It is building the leverage while the West argues about who should sail first.
#RobertPape #RedSea #Hormuz #Houthis #OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #BombingToWin
HT: YouTube At the Waters Edge
Pape says the Houthis now appear to control the Red Sea, and those three days are “shaking the world.”
He calls it pretty bad, and getting worse before it gets better.
The East-West pipeline that was supposed to bypass Hormuz has been hit and shut, he says, so there are no loadings at Yanbu.
That is not a side show. The host put it near 4% of global oil. Pape did not blink.
THE PLAN HE SAYS WAS ALREADY ON THE CALENDAR
On June 15 he mapped Iran’s “period of maximum leverage” as three buffers running down: the U.S. SPR, China’s extra buying, and the Houthis.
Starting July 20, after IRGC advisers landed in Sanaa, the Houthis began hitting Saudi tankers — not random ships.
Hormuz shipping was already being squeezed again. Then Iran-backed militias in Iraq hit the land pipe.
Pape’s line is blunt: this is a coherent, multi-prong offensive, not a weekend accident.
THE BYPASS THAT ARRIVED TOO LATE
Scott Bessent’s idea that Hormuz becomes “irrelevant in two years” because of new bypasses is, in Pape’s words, three months late and about $300 billion short.
“Right in front of our eyes they’re becoming a world power.”
He does not mean Turkey and Pakistan. He means a Persian Gulf core, then a “security resistance belt” from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf.
NO FLEET IS STEAMING IN
Europe, he says after Brussels, is not mustering for the Red Sea. It is staring at Ukraine, Russia, and a dark winter at home.
The U.S. Navy is tapped out in Hormuz. Japan, Britain, and France cannot magically reopen Bab el-Mandeb.
Flag officers talking B-2 carpet bombing miss the point he has taught for 30 years: air power without a ground or surface “anvil” just scatters the enemy. The Houthis will not sit in a kill box and wait.
THE PRICE PATH HE IS WATCHING
Oil has gone “straight up” since mid-July. Trump can talk. The tape is not listening.
Diesel, Pape says, is already at a historic U.S. high. Pump prices around $4.30–$4.45 a gallon jumped almost 20 cents in a week. He sees a path over $5, maybe $5.50 — with food riding diesel, not gasoline.
If SPR draws keep the current pace, his sketch has the reserve effectively gone by early April. That is his scenario, not a printed date.
WHAT HE SAYS COMES NEXT
The last three days, in his framing, already put a tight grip on “our artery of oil.”
The next six months are political: more influence over frontline Gulf capitals — because those central banks hold the Treasuries.
Regime-change logic, he says, is realism 101. If Washington treated it as fair game against Tehran, do not be shocked when Tehran treats Gulf governments the same way. He is describing a trajectory, not announcing a coup.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Pape’s warning is simple. The off-ramps are gone, the buffers are thinning, and the fight has moved from tankers to the map itself. First the oil artery. Then the governments that sit on the money.
Iran is not waiting for a better offer. It is building the leverage while the West argues about who should sail first.
#RobertPape #RedSea #Hormuz #Houthis #OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #BombingToWin
HT: YouTube At the Waters Edge
posted by Satish Sharma at
13:56
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