https://x.com/cirnosad/status/2028875330573013254
Who is really running out of stuff in this war? /
tl;dr It isn't Iran.
Trump is bragging about destroying missile launchers in Iran... According to Israel only 90 were destroyed. Seeing the footage published by CENTCOM, it's likely only 25% of these were not decoys. 23 trucks at most.
Yeah, Iran's TELs are literally a truck with a hydraulic lift. lol.
Trump's THAAD is made from high-purity Gallium Nitride and there were only 13 of them worldwide. Only 14 planned for construction, it takes years to make them. As far as had been published none were ever destroyed (though I suspect one was targeted).
Without THAAD's radars, the US AD strategy fails in the middle east, the Korean peninsula, in CONUS and Europe. These radars were never meant to be destroyed... there were just enough to fight a nuclear war.
Now two of those radars and an even more expensive and rare AN/FPS-132 (only 6 made) have been destroyed in just the first 3 days of the war.
Iran has also downed 10% of the total MQ-9 fleet.
It has shot down 3 F-15Es. While these are plentiful, just one of them is magnitudes more expensive than all of the TELs supposedly destroyed.
It has very likely shot down a B-2 bomber (notice how they don't speak of sending them to Iran, only B-1Bs which launch missiles). Only 19 were left in stock before this war began. The US may have just 18 left.
Then you have the countless components and experts torn to shred in hotels or the bases. The cruise missiles used to bomb school girls and carpet bomb cities, each of which is more expensive than all the TELs he's bragging about destroying.
The AN/FPS-132 cost $1.1 billion. That's more expensive than all of the TELs Iran has likely built.
Then you have the soldiers killed so far, and how much it will cost to replace them. No, not the clown number (6). The real number which is likely in the hundreds by now.
Then you have whatever damage has been directed at the US navy fleet which hasn't been reported. Given the lies and fog of war, we cannot claim this is zero. Just operating these carrier groups is more expensive than the 3 corvettes the US "sunk" while they were anchored.
Then you have the reputation loss, as striking US bases has now been normalised. There has been no nuclear response so far. The world is watching and the deterrent the US enjoyed for decades since the first gulf war is gone. I cannot even put a price against that.
The US successfully assassinated a very large number of senior people in Iran. The same people who favoured the status quo due to their advanced age. The same people who watched as Gaza was flattened, Hezbollah defanged and Syria turned into a jihadist sh*thole. Now the US faces a younger, far more fierce Iran hungry for war.
As the US rushes to find an ally that will house its aircrafts, with Iran destroying one air base after the other, you have to wonder what Trump means exactly by him destroying Iran's "air power". Iran's airports are all underground. I've been monitoring the seismic activity in Iran very closely and I haven't seen the US deploy the nukes necessary to target these airports. This may change (God forbid), but then the price of using a nuclear bomb on Iran will be the United States' existence itself.
So I ask again, who is winning? It is certainly not the US. It lost the moment it started this war for the sake of Israel.
/End
tl;dr It isn't Iran.
Trump is bragging about destroying missile launchers in Iran... According to Israel only 90 were destroyed. Seeing the footage published by CENTCOM, it's likely only 25% of these were not decoys. 23 trucks at most.
Yeah, Iran's TELs are literally a truck with a hydraulic lift. lol.
Trump's THAAD is made from high-purity Gallium Nitride and there were only 13 of them worldwide. Only 14 planned for construction, it takes years to make them. As far as had been published none were ever destroyed (though I suspect one was targeted).
Without THAAD's radars, the US AD strategy fails in the middle east, the Korean peninsula, in CONUS and Europe. These radars were never meant to be destroyed... there were just enough to fight a nuclear war.
Now two of those radars and an even more expensive and rare AN/FPS-132 (only 6 made) have been destroyed in just the first 3 days of the war.
Iran has also downed 10% of the total MQ-9 fleet.
It has shot down 3 F-15Es. While these are plentiful, just one of them is magnitudes more expensive than all of the TELs supposedly destroyed.
It has very likely shot down a B-2 bomber (notice how they don't speak of sending them to Iran, only B-1Bs which launch missiles). Only 19 were left in stock before this war began. The US may have just 18 left.
Then you have the countless components and experts torn to shred in hotels or the bases. The cruise missiles used to bomb school girls and carpet bomb cities, each of which is more expensive than all the TELs he's bragging about destroying.
The AN/FPS-132 cost $1.1 billion. That's more expensive than all of the TELs Iran has likely built.
Then you have the soldiers killed so far, and how much it will cost to replace them. No, not the clown number (6). The real number which is likely in the hundreds by now.
Then you have whatever damage has been directed at the US navy fleet which hasn't been reported. Given the lies and fog of war, we cannot claim this is zero. Just operating these carrier groups is more expensive than the 3 corvettes the US "sunk" while they were anchored.
Then you have the reputation loss, as striking US bases has now been normalised. There has been no nuclear response so far. The world is watching and the deterrent the US enjoyed for decades since the first gulf war is gone. I cannot even put a price against that.
The US successfully assassinated a very large number of senior people in Iran. The same people who favoured the status quo due to their advanced age. The same people who watched as Gaza was flattened, Hezbollah defanged and Syria turned into a jihadist sh*thole. Now the US faces a younger, far more fierce Iran hungry for war.
As the US rushes to find an ally that will house its aircrafts, with Iran destroying one air base after the other, you have to wonder what Trump means exactly by him destroying Iran's "air power". Iran's airports are all underground. I've been monitoring the seismic activity in Iran very closely and I haven't seen the US deploy the nukes necessary to target these airports. This may change (God forbid), but then the price of using a nuclear bomb on Iran will be the United States' existence itself.
So I ask again, who is winning? It is certainly not the US. It lost the moment it started this war for the sake of Israel.
/End
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