https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2033141149121077621
American Weakening in the Middle East Should Increase Chinese Influence
Recently, I discussed how the US was unable to ensure the security of the Gulf countries or even its own bases in the region. The latest satellite images confirm the extent of the damage to these bases, which have been continuously bombed.
Upon realizing that the Iranian retaliation was much greater than expected, the Americans focused primarily on protecting Israel—a criticism voiced by authorities from the Gulf countries.
With an Iran capable of confronting Israel and the United States together and still remaining standing, these countries are likely to maintain their security partnerships with the US but seek another partner that can provide them with security against Iran.
It's worth remembering that these countries bet everything on the US-Israeli offensive, allowing the use of their bases and territory for launching rockets and missiles against Iran, but they lost the bet. The truth is, they're all scared of Iran's military power.
For years, they've signed arms contracts at inflated prices not only with the US but also with the West in general. The small Kuwait even paid more than $310 million for each Eurofighter Typhoon, an absurdly inflated price.
The UAE already has partnerships with the Chinese in various fields, from energy to the defense industry.
Saudi Arabia, which had a partnership with Ukraine until 2022, flipped the switch and not only bought missiles and a series of Chinese armaments but also made the Chinese their main partner in the domestic missile program initiated by the kingdom.
Other countries have smaller partnerships with the Chinese, but it's likely that these will grow, as the Saudis and Emiratis usually set the direction.
The trend after the war is that these countries will deepen their ties with Beijing not just for weapons, but for the deterrent power they believe China can exert over Iran.
Iran today is almost a lone wolf, with support from Russia, China, North Korea, and a few other friends.
The Russians, due to their ties with both Israel and Iran, would be the best choice in this scenario, but with two wars in eight months, it's evident that Netanyahu doesn't listen to the Russians, at least on these issues.
Even with the poorly planned war and multiple attacks on Gulf countries, they should maintain close relations with the US, but rely much more on the Chinese to maintain deterrence.
But what role will the Chinese play in issues like the Iranian nuclear program, which is obviously rejected by all its neighbors?
Among different actors, will the Chinese behave the same way they did with North Korea?
This is certainly an unknown, but it could lead to even greater rapprochement between the Gulf countries and China, as China would be the last frontier in dissuading Iran from high-level uranium enrichment if the pace of the war is maintained. And watching the ongoing operation, we all doubt that it will be able to stop the Iranian program by force.
The implications of this failed operation undermine decades of work done by the Americans.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.