https://x.com/tparsi/status/2011500198535602644
Much indicates now that a US/Israeli war with Iran is imminent.
I see three scenarios: 1) A limited strike, mainly symbolic so that Trump can claim victory and then move to talks.
2) Regime decapitation by attacking most but not all political and IRGC leaders, but with the aim of having someone else from within the system take over afterwards in order to avoid instability. Followed by a deal manifesting Iranian capitulation.
3) A combination of 2 but with massive bombardment of Iran's military capabilities afterward to ensure that Iran is set back decades and cannot pose any challenge to Israel for the foreseeable future. Think Syria after Assad fell.
Of these three, I find option 1 very unlikely.
The argument against option 2 is that the Israelis would not accept it. Netanyahu has been very very silent publicly, which he probably would not have been if option 2 was the one favored by Trump.
The argument against option 3 is that it would likely require far more US assets in the region and we do not see that - at least not quite yet.
Of course, plans rarely survive contact with reality. Plenty of reasons why things won't play out as the US and Israel may have intended, including of course, how Iran responds/retaliates.
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