SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Robert Pape: the biggest mistake in planning another short war with Iran is assuming only Iran gets to respond. His point is that this is no longer a two-player conflict.

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2110797100862812650

Mario Nawfal

 Robert Pape: the biggest mistake in planning another short war with Iran is assuming only Iran gets to respond.

His point is that this is no longer a two-player conflict.

Iran, the US, Israel and the Houthis are all tied into the same escalation chain.

So even if Trump intends a 3-day strike and then wants to walk away, the Houthis may see that as the moment to attack American ships before they become the next target.

“This is World War One.”

Not because the situations are identical.

Because once one actor moves, the next move suddenly becomes rational for someone else.

And then the war stops following the plan that started it.

@ProfessorPape

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Mario Nawfal

@MarioNawfal

13h

 A new war with Iran could spiral out of control in just 72 hours

I've been trying to understand whether Trump could launch one final attack on Iran, declare victory and simply walk away.

So I put that scenario to Professor Robert Pape, who has spent decades studying