SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: The Strait of Hormuz deal Iran can't accept

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2084529769111294130

 The Strait of Hormuz deal Iran can't accept

On paper, it sounds like a compromise: Iran controls ships entering the Persian Gulf, while Oman controls ships leaving.

Everyone gets half... except they don't, because in the Strait of Hormuz, the exit lane is where the real power lies.

The tankers leaving the Gulf are loaded with the energy that keeps the global economy running.

Threaten those ships, and oil prices can surge overnight.

Threaten empty tankers sailing in, and the impact is slower, weaker, and far less certain.

That's why Tehran has consistently pushed for authority over both directions of traffic.

An inbound-only arrangement would strip away its most powerful bargaining chip.

Also, loaded vessels already inside the Gulf could continue sailing under an open outbound lane.

Export terminals could keep operating using ships already in the system.

Only weeks later, when empty tankers failed to return, would exports begin to slow.

Markets don't panic over delays; they panic over immediate supply shocks.

Iran understands that, so do traders and governments.

There's another problem: Iran also exports its own oil.

Handing effective control of the outbound lane to Oman would leave Tehran relying on a neighbor whose security relationships are far closer to Washington and the Gulf monarchies than to Iran.

For a country that views control of Hormuz as a pillar of national security, that's a strategic concession few leaders could justify.

This isn't simply about collecting transit fees or conducting inspections; it's about leverage.

Control over outbound traffic gives Iran the ability to influence global energy markets, raise shipping costs, pressure foreign governments, and strengthen its negotiating position during crises.

Inbound-only control transforms that leverage from an immediate weapon into a delayed inconvenience.

That is a trade Tehran has little incentive to make.

Writer: Ian