SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: Gulf energy producers have completely lost faith in the Trump administration and are quietly accepting Iran's permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz

https://x.com/HormuzReport/status/2087187630505284075

The Hormuz Report

BREAKING: Gulf energy producers have completely lost faith in the Trump administration and are quietly accepting Iran's permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz — because the alternative, returning to war, would be worse, per WSJ.

Gulf states don't like the emerging deal that formalizes Iranian oversight of inbound ships. But they see it as "the least-bad option" compared to further military escalation, which would put their energy infrastructure at risk. The conflict has left the region — vital to global energy security — with no good option for countering Iran.

The numbers are stark. Crude exports through the Strait have collapsed to 2.2 million barrels per day from 8.5 million a month ago. Pre-war flows of roughly 20 million barrels per day are now a distant memory. Gulf states' alternative export routes are also under attack — Saudi Arabia's Red Sea pipeline hit by Houthi strikes, Egypt's Damietta port struck by drones.

Iranian officials have declared the new Iranian order in the Strait is "irreversible," and the U.S. has no alternative but to accept it or face "costs much greater than in the past." Iran already holds effective control over the strait, with commercial shippers refusing to cross without Tehran's assurance.

The WSJ's conclusion is stark: Gulf states are adapting to a new normal where Iran's veto over their energy exports is permanent. The U.S. has been pushed out of the Gulf militarily. And the alternative to accepting Iran's control — a return to full-scale war — is worse.