SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: trying to outlast Iran is a fools errand, that cannot end well for us.

https://x.com/DanielLDavis1/status/2064727598832193656

“We can outlast Iran and any possible economic damage to us is temporary.“

That is a huge, huge, huge assumption, based more on hope than any tangible fundamentals.

Iran has a long history, culture, and religion of suffering, and it is a virtual certainty they can outlast us, because the pain to the United States economically for a continuation of this war could be catastrophic - and if the president makes good on his threat this morning to return to combat operations in which he will hit Iranian energy systems, that pain will skyrocket on us too, as Iran will certainly make good on its counter threat to hit GCC oil facilities. 

Because of near heroic work by the global oil and gas industry so far, the disruption from SOH oil and gas has been mitigated to a lower cost than most experts initially thought.

But those mitigation efforts have an expiration date, and it’s coming up pretty quick. This cannot go on indefinitely.

The longer this war goes on, the higher the cost to get for us, and the longer-lasting the damage.

In short, trying to outlast Iran is a fools errand, that cannot end well for us.

Quote

Jim Hanson

@JimHansonDC

The fail in most analyses like this is assuming all costs to have the naval forces there is a stand alone cost
It’s not
Those ships would be steaming around somewhere so the actual cost is only incremental for higher op tempo and munitions expended.

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