The events of the past hour underscore just how resounding a strategic failure the latest campaign against Iran has been
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2063717887165305149
Translated from Hebrew
The events of the past hour underscore just how resounding a strategic failure the latest campaign against Iran has been. Israel now faces a tough dilemma: to respond and risk a frontal clash with the President of the United States, or to refrain from responding and allow Iran to entrench a new equation that will significantly curtail Israel's freedom of action against Hezbollah in the future.
More importantly, the recent developments illustrate that despite two military campaigns against Tehran, Iran is far from deterred. On the contrary. The Iranian leadership is projecting high confidence in its capabilities, and is particularly convinced that there is currently no credible threat—neither from Israel nor from the United States—that could compel it to make a substantive change in its policy.
Meanwhile, President Trump faces a particularly problematic strategic reality. The options available to him are not good, and he appears to be someone who prefers to reach an agreement with Iran at almost any cost rather than allowing a slide into a broader regional confrontation.
In the end, this is the price of a campaign that yielded impressive tactical achievements but failed to attain its central strategic goal: the toppling of the regime. Instead, Israel finds itself with less freedom of action, Iran with greater self-confidence, and the United States with a growing desire to end the crisis through a political settlement.
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posted by Satish Sharma at
03:47
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