SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: The deal sidelines Israel and weakens it. There is no question about that and everyone in Israel knows it.

https://x.com/academic_la/status/2065825468474109960

Shaiel Ben-Ephraim

Israel is starting to realize that there will be a deal in Iran and is trying to figure out how to handle it. Veteran defense journalist Ron Ben-Yishai wrote today on how concerned Israel is about that and what it will do next:

1) Israel is locked out. The talks run through Qatar and Pakistan. Netanyahu's frequent calls with Trump move the margins and nothing more. Ben Yishai is blunt about it. Same dynamic as the Obama years, now under the friendliest president Bibi will ever get.

2) The regime gets oxygen. Sanctions relief and unfrozen funds come back gradually, but they come back. This is the deal's worst feature for Israel.

3) The Gulf is drifting toward Tehran, not Israel. The Saudis, the Emiratis, and the Qataris watched Washington fail to defend them from Iranian attack. So they are courting Iran, not normalizing with Israel. 

4) Iran rebuilt its tie to the proxies with US consent. Tehran is already demanding Israel withdraw from south Lebanon. That gives it a lever to bind our hands through Hezbollah, and through the Houthis at Bab al-Mandab.

5) Israel is hoping that now that the war will stop the protests in Iran will restart. Some in the IDF believe  the regime falls in one to three years if Washington plays it patiently.

6) Israel will use Lebanon as its main way to undermine the deal or at least to shape it. Lebanon is where Israel actually holds cards. The IDF crossed the Litani and took the Beaufort ridge and Nabatieh. It destroyed two massive tunnel systems the IDF calls Hezbollah's "Navarone guns." Those are bargaining chips.

The deal sidelines Israel and weakens it. There is no question about that and everyone in Israel knows it. Their main consolation is that there will be other rounds. Probably instigated by Israel which can end differently. The Israeli dream of regional domination has only been dented.