SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: One of the most common misconceptions in Washington is that Iran's core concessions can be bought with economic incentives. They cannot.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2068308448983314584

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

One of the most common misconceptions in Washington is that Iran's core concessions can be bought with economic incentives. They cannot.

Iran is not going to give up its missile program, its right to enrich uranium, its influence in the Strait of Hormuz, or its support for regional proxies in exchange for sanctions relief, no matter how generous the offer. These are not bargaining chips; they are viewed by the regime as pillars of its national security and revolutionary identity.

This is precisely why Iran did not capitulate under the "maximum pressure" campaign despite the enormous economic pain it inflicted. The cost of surrendering those core principles was simply higher than the economic cost of resisting.

That does not mean Iran is unwilling to compromise. On the contrary, Tehran has repeatedly demonstrated that it is prepared to negotiate and reach agreements when the terms serve its interests. A nuclear agreement that limits aspects of Iran's program in exchange for sanctions relief is entirely consistent with that logic. An agreement that demands the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure in return for sanctions relief is not.

Iranian leaders understand the importance of economic growth and stability for preventing domestic unrest and preserving the regime. But economic prosperity has always been treated as a means of strengthening the Islamic Republic, not as a reason to abandon its defining principles.

The lesson is straightforward: if policymakers believe that offering more economic benefits will persuade Iran to surrender what it considers fundamental strategic assets, they misunderstand how the regime calculates costs and benefits. Iran may negotiate. It may compromise. But it is unlikely to trade away what it sees as essential to its security and identity simply for more money.

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The Economist

@TheEconomist

10h

Donald Trump has put hundreds of billions of dollars on the table. Iran has signed a deal and appears ready to do business. On The Insider, our top editors ask what has changed in Tehran—and whether Mr Trump’s big gamble will pay off.

Watch the full show: http://econ.st/3QA7yNb