SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: It seems as though there ACTUALLY is a potential MOU agreed to between the United States and Iran. A few things in particular are worth remembering:

https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2065477295855575548

Brett Erickson

It seems as though there ACTUALLY is a potential MOU agreed to between the United States and Iran. 

A few things in particular are worth remembering:

1) This is a Memorandum of Understanding… NOT a final peace deal.

2) Iran WILL be getting their unfrozen assets. $6B, $12B, $24B… there is no feasible scenario where these assets are not unfrozen up front. Washington will likely try to frame this as “humanitarian relief”, or “from another country”, or it may be behind closed doors entirely… but Iran IS going to get paid. 

3) This WILL be a terrible deal for the United States. This is inevitable, and has been inevitable for 2+ months now. This is the consequence of getting disastrously outplayed by your adversary.

4) Israel still plans to play the spoiler here on any more robust deal. It is unlikely that Israel will stop their terrorist actions in Gaza and Lebanon, and that alone threatens to derail any more substantial peace deal. 

5) This is the one that MANY people, particularly the Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby want to overlook: Iran DOES have significant incentive to engage honestly in further negotiations. The war will be lost, and this is why the Lobby and Hawks refuse to accept any MOU, but Iran has experienced significant damage to their infrastructure, and is in a bad place economically. Iran has significant incentive to seek primary and secondary sanctions relief from the United States, and this is why I believe we WILL eventually see a JCPOA-lite deal… eventually. 

The United States lost this war. Trump’s legacy is over. The Iran Hawks careers are over (good). 

But there IS hope that the United States can still negotiate on the nuclear front in future talks beyond the MOU.