SATISH SHARMA - not just Rotigraphy.: The Abrahamic Peace Is a Breaking Point!

https://x.com/drranakhalid/status/2059933743754719657

Translated from Arabic

 Drowning in the Arabian Gulf  
Trump and the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries  

Yesterday, Trump practiced, for the first time, a policy of dual pressure on both sides of the Hormuz Strait, where he announced via Truth Social that: "If the Gulf countries do not join the Abraham Accords, it is not certain that there is any benefit to striking a deal with Iran."  
Trump's statements pointed to the existence of major challenges in the relations between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.  

The Abrahamic Peace Is a Breaking Point!  

Passing the Abrahamic peace file helps the Trump administration alleviate pressures from the hawkish lobby in Congress and also eases the pressure on the current of his allies in Tel Aviv. This is what diplomats confirmed in an MEE article that indicated Trump is using the Gulf normalization card as an achievement and victory that helps in convincing Benjamin Netanyahu's government and the hawks in Congress to accept any de-escalation agreement or nuclear settlement with Tehran.  
However, what is tangible from the Trump administration is that the Arabian Gulf countries are closing the doors to this file and consider that pressuring them in this direction is blackmail that will lead neither to peace in the region nor to stability, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (through its official channels) insists on its firm position that any normalization with Israel is conditional on an irreversible path to establishing a Palestinian state, which Trump ignores in his current proposals.  

Paralysis of American Power  

The Gulf region countries, which had relied on the absolute promises of American power that Trump offered—and who promised an unprecedented display of force that would end Iran's power and paralyze it forever—have now begun to hear voices rising that:  
The scene of the superhuman power has not materialized,  
The scene of the regional policeman has become a thing of the past,  
The promise of absolute protection based on strategic relations is facing deep and fundamental challenges.  

Accordingly, the paralysis of power and the strategic handling of changes in the decision-making industry in the Arabian Gulf countries may affect the American military presence in the region, especially if it loses its utility or if other international powers like China or Russia provide direct or indirect support for protecting security and prosperity in the region.  

Partnership and Interests  

The strategic relations linking Washington with its Gulf allies are facing a radical transformation from traditional dependency to a completely new form that can be described as relations based on (mutual beneficial partnership and reciprocal interests) on the part of its Gulf allies. The Gulf countries no longer deal with Washington as a blind security partner but as independent regional powers that prioritize their national interests first under the banner of "Gulf First."  
This, in addition to the idea of defense independence, or self-reliance, where these countries have begun to formulate the concept of strategic self-governance through diversifying arms sources, purchasing non-American defense technology, and localizing their military industries... And the United Arab Emirates has demonstrated advanced performance in air defense during the recent escalation crisis, which actually signals a future that may change the standards of power and the balance of deterrence in the Arabian Gulf region and offers a lesson in the UAE's ability to formulate an advanced military equation that achieves the principle of independent self-defense.  

Politically, Washington's position is no less complex in dealing with strategic partners in the Arabian Gulf region. In the past, Washington dealt with the Gulf countries as a single bloc agreeing on a unified approach, but today the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are no longer a single political bloc; rather, they are divided into two axes, each with its own different political approach based on the realism of dealing with threats and what suits the size, goals, and interests. This axial division is not evidence of weakness but rather evidence of maturity and depth in strategic thinking. The United States and the West are not adept at adapting to the structural changes in the strategic thinking of decision-makers in the Gulf region, and failure to deal with this change or understand it will cause severe damage to the American and Western presence in the region on all levels.  

The Future  

Of course, there will be no complete disengagement or absolute end to these solid strategic relations linking the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries,  
which are connected by  
energy,  
global strategy,  
advanced technology,  
and massive investments.  
And yet, it cannot be ignored that this relationship is going through a phase of profound change and deep restructuring, and the truth is that these transformations began during the Obama administration and continued through the first half of President Biden's administration.  
But the recent escalation crisis has become the crossroads of paths, transformations, and changes.  
And yet, the relations between Washington and the Gulf countries will continue no matter the pressures and challenges, as neither side has complete alternatives to dispense with each other, but what will inevitably change is the form of the alliance, the extent of coordination, and the parity of demands and interests.