Will there be a US ground invasion of Iran? The real question is how mad are Trump and his entourage? Let’s think about it.

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Will there be a US ground invasion of Iran? The real question is how mad are Trump and his entourage? Let’s think about it.

The MAGA lifestyle is a reductionist fantasy, a crayon drawing of a bad John Wayne movie. MAGA grew out economic precarity and cultural unease, the unwritten logic being that if the Irish can have paddy pride and queer people can have gay pride then why can’t ignorant people have thick, religiously intolerant and racist pride?

MAGA is a co-created wild west for sulky sadomasochistic children, an intellectually bankrupt celebration of unrestrained licence in which you can take whatever you want and mash the faces of all objectors into the mud - a bullies charter. These thuggish fist bumps are what gives the MAGA movement its modus operandi and identity. For some the MAGA ethos is also bundled with the notions of divine purpose from Christian Zionism and the New Apostolic Reformation.

Iran is a crisis for the MAGA tribe and their appointed god-emperor, so to what depths will Trump and his entourage sink in order to defend the fantasies of the movement and its leaders?

Will they praise themselves about the great ‘victory’ they have secured in Iran and walk away, or will religious exceptionalism and war movie swagger see them launch a ground offensive?

My thoughts drift to Mary Trump (a psychologist and Donald Trump's niece) and her book Too Much and Never Enough in which she describes Trump as a deeply damaged individual shaped by a dysfunctional upbringing.

She diagnoses him with profound narcissism, antisocial personality disorder traits, and a long-term inability to process reality. Key aspects of her clinical psychological profile included:

* Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD): Mary Trump asserts Donald J Trump meets all nine diagnostic criteria for NPD. She claims his ego requires constant validation because of hidden and deep seated fears of inadequacy.

* Antisocial Tendencies and Sociopathy: Trump displays antisocial personality disorder traits, like a lack of empathy, a contempt for morality, and taking pleasure in inflicting pain on others.

* Lack of Genuine Capacity: Trump is unable to act independently in the real world and relies on others to protect him and his fantasies.

“No Self-Doubt”: Mary argues that he avoids psychological devastation only by avoiding self-awareness and any internal self-questioning.

I draw your attention to the last two points especially, for they apply not just to Trump but his entire coterie.

It is hard for the working class to understand how the 0.1% build upwardly mobile societal organisms that fail to the top. In an oligarchy promotion is achieved not through merit or capability but through the manipulation of circumstances.

Trump is a broker of elite appointments and access to government funds, for such people real life outcomes and achievements are irrelevant, the perception of their power is all that matters.

The more that people like Trump are rewarded for ignorance and failure, the more they think that reality is an optional extra that they can shape as they choose. Toxic individuals and class based groupings of this kind have been bumbling their way to the top of British and American society for centuries

On losing the 2020 election Trump said to officials “just say it was rigged - I will do the rest” establishing that:

(a) Trump can never accept the reality of any failure

(b) He has boundless faith in his capacity to shape people’s perception of reality.

For Trump material truth, meritocratic restraint, public censure, self-awareness and any internal self-doubt are mortal enemies. People in Trump’s entourage are fellow fantasists / incompetents trapped inside a classically co-dependent group dynamic.

Right now the members of Trump’s fail to the top organism are in a panic, the realities of geopolitics are intruding on their fantastical lives, they are crashing and burning and need an adult’s help…but there are no adults left in the room. Since failing electorally in 2020, Trump has surrounded himself with only with those loyalists, sycophants and maniacs who best protect his delusions.

So what will this frightened rabble of narcissistic children at The White House do next about Iran?

It is impossible to be certain, but this we know from the history:

* Trump never once shown a capacity for accepting the reality of ANY of his many material and moral failures, this being but a continuation of the overarching ethos of US foreign policy since the founding of the state.

* Trump and his entourage see the US military as an extension of their own self-assessed genius and religious manias.

* The self-buttressing co-dependency that powers Trump’s White House depends on overbearing swagger, bullying, religious faux certainty and never backing down. Allowing reality to intrude would risk collapsing the entire house of cards and at some level they all know that.

* Trump endlessly uses misdirection and confusion to buy time for his next act of aggression… and more troops and aircraft carriers are on their way to the Middle East.

I sadly suspect it is beyond the capacity of Trump and his circus troupe of inadequate children and invested fantasists to change course.

I therefore conclude that the US will soon launch some kind of disastrous ground offensive in Iran.