Why Did It Work in Venezuela and Not in Iran?
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2047288003970646394
Why Did It Work in Venezuela and Not in Iran?
To understand why, on January 3 of this year, the United States carried out an operation and successfully captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro without resistance from the Venezuelan armed forces, it is necessary to start with the political organization and the distinct moments the two states are going through.
Maduro’s Venezuela had nearly 200 officers from the armed forces imprisoned because of six coup attempts, more than 20 of whom were colonels and generals. It was a fractured military force, with extremely low salaries, poorly trained, without combat experience, and held hostage by disputes between Venezuelan political factions.
Years of sanctions forced Venezuela, which, unlike Iran, did not seek ways to circumvent the sanctions and maintain a functional state, into this situation.
In Maduro’s Venezuela, the military high command controlled oil and gas, mining, and industry through Camimpeg, as well as logistics and food distribution, managing ports, airports, and warehouses through the “Gran Misión Abastecimiento Soberano.”
The military elite took over the Venezuelan state while watching the entire country sink into poverty.
This scenario contrasts sharply with Iran, starting with its own governance structure. In Iran, the president may be challenged and criticized within the government, but the Ayatollah’s position is sovereign, with an uncontested verticalization of leadership in the country.
This makes any opposition organization and uprising in the armed forces extremely difficult.
The Iranian model has always had clear enemies and has invested heavily in preparation for the possibility of a war against the United States and Israel.
But this investment went far beyond weapons: it was an investment in the foundations of the Iranian state, in the country’s universities and research centers, creating a solid and innovative ecosystem that enabled the emergence of a civilian and military industry comparable to, and in some sectors even more modern than, that of the West.
Unlike Venezuela, the Iranian forces have real combat experience and doctrinal refinement from proxy wars in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria, perfecting doctrines and allowing the implementation of new technologies.
The contrast is evident even when comparing the militia organizations of these two countries. While Iran’s Basij has a clear three-tier hierarchy, regular (basic), active (45 days of training), and special (IRGC members serving in the Basij), including special forces with actual combat experience; While the Bolivarian Militia is composed almost entirely of civilians with very little real training.
There is absolutely no parallel between Iran and Venezuela other than the fact that both were sanctioned and attacked by the United States.
But why was the attack on Venezuela a quick and successful operation while the attack on Iran has been a failure dragging on for nearly two months?
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posted by Satish Sharma at
14:26
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